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Many, many moons ago I asked my mentor how to estimate. He told me that you should figure out what it feels like, then double it and then take it to the next higher time unit.

"hmm, adding that button probably takes about an hour"... 2 days is about right.

Almost 30 years later I still find this to be true. Truer than I like.


It is somewhat a self correcting system.

You don’t want them interacting with you too often for one hour tasks. You want to train them to lower resolutions slices. And you want to round up small ones to do refactoring as well.

Eventually they get a sense of just right. It’s never perfect but they are estimating before they even ask. Whic if we’re honest, they’ve done anyway and they’re hoping we will agree, absolving them of the responsibility.


> Almost 30 years later I still find this to be true. Truer than I like.

This happened 15 months ago?


So 1 Month becomes 2 years? I don't think that's a good rule.


1 month of your own concentrated work? 2 quarters easily, because at this scale:

- You’ll get a bunch stakeholders each requesting a different format of progress reporting.

- You’ll get pulled into dealing with a small but disruptive emergency that requires unique expertise.

- A dependency will change in a way incompatible with your work in progress.

- You’ll hand off the half done project to the new hire.

- You’ll need to rediscover what the project is about after the new hire hands it back.


Not that I've used this extensively, but months would likely increase to quarters.

And if you're estimating something to the lengths of months, you're already into project management territory size, rather than broken down to development/delivery sizes... The amount of unknown unknowns and other uncertainty certainly warrant happily estimating years length, surely.

Also #NoEstimates (=


In Germany its 50 cases per 100'000 in a borough. After that lock downs are supposed to happen again. (with discretion, if, for example, cases can be isolated)

What other country do you think of that doesn't have clarity?


To me, it is definitely unclear what the goal is in Germany. Is it eradication like New Zealand? Is it controlled herd immunity? Remember that Merkel said that around 70% of the population will get infected anyways. If that’s true, hospitals should not be empty. Instead controlled infection should take place. But that’s not what we have seen. We have seen an eradication strategy. Highly confusing


Same for Chrome on Windows 10


Thanks, probably our player just broke. Huge oops.


Why is Postgres lack of query hints not scary for people?


Because they are another form of coupling which is hellish to get out of if you want stuff to be portable, which as we found out when SQL pricing went through the roof is definitely a desirable feature in your application...

Also we use an ORM (NHibernate) which abstracts the entire query and schema away from us. We load/perf test that and get on with life. If there are any blockers, it's 99.9% architectural or loading related which we cover with test cases.

For us, the database is the hole we put our shit in when we don't want it in memory any more. Nothing more.


In your other comment, you mention that "our hefty DB cluster has lots of cores", and that this caused licensing to be much more expensive. Have you considered that maybe the abstractions and attitudes you're using have inflated the amount of hardware you need?

NHibernate, for example, can make it extremely easy to generate extremely poorly-performing queries. It often takes much more care and effort to have it generate mediocre queries than it takes to write good queries and any binding code by hand.

The "abstracts the entire query and schema away from us" and "database is the hole we put our shit in when we don't want it in memory any more" attitudes don't help reinforce the idea that you guys know how to use relational databases properly.

When teams go out of their way to remain as ignorant as possible about relational databases, while also using abstractions that are often inefficient, they shouldn't be surprised if their hardware needs (and their licensing costs, in some cases) balloon due to this inefficiency.


Actually no, it's load. We have 80 million page hits a day and each of these can run 10-20 queries on a 2TiB dataset. We're not a small outfit.

We use Nhibernate profiler to check our SQL output and all of our queries and make sure we're not doing anything stupid.

We know how to use relational databases, but it's expensive and hard representing our problem domain with them so an OO system is better.

We optimise later by switching the engine out to something cheaper. At least we CAN do this with an ORM abstraction without too much pain.

After all, premature optimisation is the root of all evil isn't it?


> We have 80 million page hits a day and each of these can run 10-20 queries on a 2TiB dataset.

Why is each page hit running 10-20 queries?


Because they are extremely complicated.


The question is, what's cheaper- labor for optimizing the queries + paying (possibly reduced) SQL server licensing, or keeping the "mediocre" queries + throwing in more hardware?


Hardware is cheaper. Running postgres!


Because they are a solution in search of a problem. Or more accurately, they are a problem in search of a problem.

http://wiki.postgresql.org/wiki/OptimizerHintsDiscussion


Hmm, I needed them a few times so far, specially when it comes to lots and complex sets of data and complex queries.

I had jobs run for a few hours on Dev only to take weeks (if I would have let them) on production, which was in ever aspect a beefier machine.


99% of the hinting I've seen people "need" was not needed at all, it was just the lazy way to temporarily work around a bad query plan. Other than actual bugs in the query planner, I can't even invent a hypothetical scenario where the tools postgresql already gives you to influence the query planner couldn't solve a problem.


That's the thing. It gets the job done and if you need a dev to develop a certain feature that MS SQL has you recouped your licence costs right there.

This does suck for small/mid sized businesses though. :/


Yup, you piggy back your message/ad on someone else's payed ads


90 bullets a year in total, as much as they pumped into one guy in New York in the same year


You're not too far off. Companies have to, with growing size, do more and more stuff in french. At large companies that aren't exempt you must have a french keyboard for example and code comments have to be in french.


I live in Quebec and worked in big organizations, even public ones like the Governement and a city, and never ever heard that. Source please?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francization#Francization_in_Qu...

Any large company should have a policy document which states the absurd rules including installation of French software versions and use of French keyboards, hiring and e-mail policies. I believe the policies only apply to businesses with over 50 employees so you would not have encountered them in the public sector.


A lot of companies fragment themselves into smaller chunks with employees under 49 to avoid laws like this.


I'll even add that if your comment isn't in proper Québec semantics and grammar, you might be subject to flagellation.


I really don't want any of those networking/social features and I am pretty sure we're doomed to use them. I think I am going to pass on this one.


I just went through my activity log on Facebook, because it knew I shared it a while ago. It was mid November, I got it from a German Radio station. (It wasn't played a lot back then though) Not trying to be all hipster and stuff but: "Called it!"


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