I think you need to touch some grass if you don't know the difference between curiosity (searching for the answer and evidence) and conspiracy (inventing answer out of nothing and ignoring the evidence)
> The only way they will is if the hyperscalers and AI companies start to implode
you're missing the picture that it's not companIES - the crisis primarily was caused by only one company OpenAI buying out wafers
but even more than that - that wafer buyout is *an excuse* used by cartel - there are several mechanisms that could have eased out most of the problem (e.g. Samsung selling old equipment) that was not done to ride the money wave
(also said "hyperscalers and AI companies" existed in spring 2025 too, yet the price was low)
the winners will not be the ones who build new fabs - but ones who'll have enough money and government subsidies/import taxes to protect such investments after cartel decides to oversupply again, flushing the price down
Yes, it's a nefarious plot of AI producers to attempt a monopoly with a product that no one seems capable of demonstrating has the exponential value they're betting on.
Once everybody has a decent amount of VRAM they can just run local AIs and the need to mess with Ad-laden search results will fizzle. So of course they are desperate to grab a new monopoly. People haven't realised yet, that local AIs are fast and produce good results - on pretty average hardware. If they don't manage to grab a new monopoly Google will be history.
But it doesn't really need a nefarious plot for the price spikes. There is a serious lack of VRAM deployed out there. Filling that gap will take quite some time. Add to that the nefarious plot and the situation will most likely get even worse....
LLM inference is mostly read only, so high-bandwidth flash looks like it could provide huge cost savings over VRAM. It's not yet in commercial products but there are working prototypes already. Previous HN discussion:
Although their stated reason for hoarding is that they "really need it", I think it was a strategic move to make their competitors' lives more difficult with little regard for the collateral consequences to non-competitors, such as regular people or companies needing new computers.
I can never understand why so many people resort conspiracy theories when the obvious answer is supply and demand. I know well educated people, who do this when they talk about the resential property market. (Including an accountant).
Supply and demand can be caused by a conspiracy. OpenAI secretly bought 40% of the world's RAM on purpose. It's only a conspiracy if Anthropic and Google did something similar, though.
Eventually new capacity will come online, and the money the DRAM companies are making are going to accelerate even ,ore new capacity. If you can get your new capacity going before your competitors, maybe you can avoid a bubble burst. If you don’t build new capacity, your competitors will, etc, etc…
They're not building any new manufacturing capacity though. They assume this is a demand bubble and they don't want supply to exceed demand after it pops.
multiple major DRAM factories are currently being built or planned, driven by AI demand and government incentives. Micron is constructing a massive $100 billion "megafab" complex in New York, with groundbreaking occurring in January 2026, and is building new facilities in Idaho. Other projects include expansion in Singapore and Japan.
Key DRAM Factory Construction Projects:
Micron Technology (USA): Building a $100 billion, 4-fab complex in Clay, New York (first production expected around 2030) and a new $15 billion, 2-fab project in Boise, Idaho.
Micron (Global): Investing in expanding capacity in Singapore and Taiwan.
Nanya Technology (Taiwan): Previously initiated a $10.69 billion DRAM facility in New Taipei, Taiwan.
A quick search tells me the megafab in New York was announced years ago, the Singapore fab is for NAND flash, and the Taiwan fab already exists and they're buying it. So none of those are in response to the AI demand for RAM, are they?
I get that you are an AI skeptic but you can do better than that with a quick search these days. HBM for high end (commercial) GPUs.
SK Hynix
The current HBM market leader is fast-tracking multiple "megafabs" and packaging centers.
Cheongju, South Korea (P&T7): A new $13 billion advanced packaging and testing plant dedicated to stacking and testing HBM chips. Construction is set to begin in April 2026, with completion by late 2027.
Cheongju, South Korea (M15X): This fab is being fast-tracked for HBM4 mass production, with the first cleanroom now expected to open in February 2027.
Yongin, South Korea: SK Hynix is investing roughly $22 billion in the first fab of a massive new semiconductor cluster. Operations are planned to start in February 2027.
West Lafayette, Indiana, USA: A $3.87 billion advanced packaging site that will integrate HBM directly onto GPUs. Construction fencing was installed in February 2026, with production targeted for late 2028.
Samsung Electronics
Samsung is accelerating its "Shell First" strategy to secure production space ahead of competitors.
Pyeongtaek, South Korea (P4 & P5): Samsung has advanced the construction of the P5 cleanroom by several months, with a new operational target of late 2027. The P4 line is expected to come online even earlier, likely during 2026.
Taylor, Texas, USA: This $17 billion "megafab" is designed for advanced logic and HBM packaging. While hit by delays, it is now targeting a late 2026 opening.
Micron Technology
Micron is diversifying its HBM production across the U.S. and Asia to grow its market share.
Boise, Idaho, USA (ID1 & ID2): The ID1 fab reached a key milestone in June 2025 and is expected to start wafer output in the second half of 2027. ID2 is planned to follow shortly after.
Onondaga County, New York, USA: Micron officially broke ground in January 2026 on a $100 billion "megafab" complex, though significant supply is not expected until near 2030.
Hiroshima, Japan: A planned $9.6 billion HBM-focused fab is expected to come online between 2027 and 2028.
Singapore & Taiwan: Micron began construction on a $24 billion wafer facility in Singapore in January 2026 and acquired a fab in Taiwan for $1.8 billion to rapidly expand DRAM capacity by late 2027.
For lower end GPUs, like what goes into Apple machines.
New LPDDR Production Facilities
Samsung (Pyeongtaek P4 & P5): Samsung is converting several NAND flash lines to DRAM and accelerating the P4 and P5 fabs in South Korea. While these fabs support HBM, they are also designed for mass-producing 6th-generation 1c DRAM, which will form the basis of the next-gen LPDDR6 modules expected to debut in 2026.
SK Hynix (Icheon & M15X): SK Hynix is planning an 8-fold increase in 1c DRAM production by the end of 2026. This capacity will be split between HBM and "general-purpose" DRAM, which includes the LPDDR variants used in mobile and laptop chips.
Micron (Boise, Idaho - ID1): Micron's new ID1 fab in Boise is currently under construction, with structural steel completion reached in late 2025. It is scheduled to begin wafer output in the second half of 2027, focusing on leading-edge DRAM that includes LPDDR for the U.S. market.
The "Memory Wall" for Apple
The primary challenge is that HBM production requires significantly more wafer area than standard LPDDR. Consequently, even as these new factories open, the shortage of commodity DRAM (LPDDR5X/LPDDR6) is expected to persist through 2028 because manufacturers find HBM far more profitable.
is it summer time or winter time?
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