the last one. states rights only when convenient :)

Co-Pilot is a perfect name because it, just like actual Co-Pilots, perform their best when they do nothing

Men offspring-ing in their 60's and dying 10 years later is perfect way to build a society where kids get to grow up without their fathers when they need them the most

Then again, they inherit a nice house at the beginning of their adulthood instead of being a landlord's squeezed client for decades.

There are trade-offs everywhere.

They will be correct if they move the decimal point

except $4T is a made up number, a complete fantasy not rooted in any reality. it us more like $750bn (this is also made up number) :)

All valuations are “made up” numbers.

Some are more made up than others though!

Price discovery isn’t “making up” a number it’s discovering a number that meets a specific criteria.

Critically it’s not simply averaging a bunch of made up numbers. I may think gold is worth 1,000$/kg but if nobody is willing to sell me gold at that price then my “made up” number has zero effect on the market price.

The 409a has a lot of words and numbers to justify a particular valuation. It's not made up from the ether based on nothing. You can disagree with their reasoning and come to a different number, but you need to show your work if you want anyone to give a shit about your made up number. How many satellites have you launched this year? What's the going rate for a kilogram to LEO? Who are the competitors and what do they charge? Things like that which aren't magic made up numbers.

The valuation is actually mostly about AI. Satellites, like electric cars, don’t have quite the growth story (and I do mean “story”).

https://bsky.app/profile/patigallardo.bsky.social/post/3mnhc...

That’s total addressable market. It’s claiming that AI products they could build could be that amount. It assumes they gain 100% of the market which techbros are basically claiming is most current human effort. It’s stupid, but not what’s actually driving the price.

They are making more revenue off satellites than nearly every current AI subscription today put together. The launch capacity and growth in space based applications are the real company, everything else is to line Musks pockets and have markets subsidize his dumber projects.

It’s a shell game. I believe in their Space based products, but I’m not touching those investments until the market levels out.

> The 409a has a lot of words and numbers to justify a particular valuation

That's tangential. The valuation is based on supply and demand, nothing else.

Amongst other things the supply part of the equation will be low because all these companies are only to make a very small proportion of their shares available on the public markets.

409As are absolutely made-up numbers. Management writes a number on a sheet and a 409A consultant signs it.

You do realize SpaceX valuation is completely detached from the space business at this point?

Their S1 cites (by memory) a 370B addressable market for space stuff and a 27 trillion for AI.

And for AI they counted all Twitter accounts as grok users.

The Spaces eXploration company was a cool company, but it's not what's being sold to the market now.

Closer to 1.7 trillion for space. You’re quoting launch but discounting satellites and broadband.

The AI stuff is dumb and just subsidize Elons prior dumber investments.

> The 409a has a lot of words and numbers to justify a particular valuation.

Wow, you should educate yourself on what 409A is and how it gets created before writing something like that, you'd find it in the dictionary under the definition for what my original comment was :)

still too high

I’ve said this myself myriad of times over a very long career as SWE. never because I can’t read 20 pages but because 20-page write-up is always 18 pages too many. be succinct and keep it simple. if you can’t explain on few pages another 50 won’t help you

pangram is AI garbage spewing AI garbage

this is not an option for the majority of people

you can replace “google” with every company that exists or has ever existed so no sure what the purpose of your comment is unless you are pitching abolishing the stock market. google is what they are because they make shitton of money and will continue to do so (more and more) into foreseeable future. that is stock market, always has been, always will be

if kroger shut its doors, my life would be much worse

If Kroger shut its doors, you can search for a different grocery store … maybe even on Google …