It's interesting that the same dynamic is playing out on a much larger scale with children. A child is far more helpless than a junior engineer - at least a junior engineer can feed themselves, wipe their own butt, avoid destroying the room, and generally keep themselves alive. Everybody wants to offload the cost of raising children to parents, because the economic benefits aren't realized for 25+ years yet the costs are very substantial (frequently, at least one parent's full-time attention, costing them an income). Prospective parents are saying "fuck that shit" and simply choosing not to have children.
The long-term effects are going to be much like the effect of the software industry turning away from juniors: total collapse. When you have no workforce, you'll do no work - hell, there is just...nothing, nonexistence, no consumers either. But the fertility bust operates on a longer timescale (I think the software industry will start feeling the dearth of juniors in ~5 years, the economy as a whole won't feel the dearth of children for ~5), and it's far more fundamental. Rather than one industry disappearing, all industries will disappear, likely refactored into something that looks far different.
It also reminds me of those ecological predator/prey/locust models that I studied in calculus class, where population dynamics for many species have a tendency to overshoot the carrying capacity of the environment. Each individual in the population makes their own reproductive & survival decisions, but the sum total of them leads to population collapse and a near total extinction, followed by recovery once the survivors find resources abundant again.
>Prospective parents are saying "fuck that shit" and simply choosing not to have children.
Or in other words, they've been priced out of the market.
If there will be no sociofinancial niche for their children to inhabit this is in fact the rational course of action. See also: South Korean current birth rates.
Also sort of. Some form of social organization seems to be necessary for humans to function. But humans are also pretty good (well - relatively speaking, it usually seems to require a war or revolution) at changing that form of social organization as technology, population, and environmental conditions change.
I think this is a very likely outcome. We aren't going to get continued population growth next generation; a significant number of the people needed for it will never be born. This is going to have ripple effects across wide swaths of political and economic organization. But you'll have pockets of population that basically barricade themselves off from the wider economic world and insulate themselves from its collapse, and then the people within them, along with whatever form of social organization they happen to adopt.
I feel that. I am expecting my first child in a couple of months and the lack of support infrastructure makes me extremely anxious. We don’t have our family around to support us. The cost of services to take care of young children are so high that it makes almost no sense for both parents to continue working. The declining birth rates are truly no surprise.
That being said, a huge amount of the work being done (arguably all of it) is in support of humans. It would follow then that the more of us there are the more work is required, whereas if there were fewer of us less work is required. — I think the real concerns about birth-rate/population decline come from “borrowing against the future”, if that future never materializes then you cashed bad checks.
In my opinion, reproduction is based on the idea "borrowing against the future", or Ponzi Scheme, because reproduction is based on the idea that "we would have a better future", but in fact, we will not.
The Birthrate dropping has multiple causes, none of them have any relation to the topic at hand
It's a negative (from the perspective of reproduction) confluence of both social and economic developments.
E.g. the death of the traditional gender roles has inevitably reduced birth rates - for multiple reasons to boot. Because on the one hand, the women has am easier time not to commit and just sleep around, consequently becoming uninteresting to men that would've preferred to make a family... But also because biologically, men are more attracted to demure women, which on average will ultimately remove even more attraction, consequently removing even more likelihood of families being built.
But that's once again only one factor, you got others too... Like stagnant wages, which force younger people too abstain from making a family simply because the financial situation doesn't allow for it. And if it happens anyway, it's more then likely to end in a broken family instead of something positive
Another factor is the availability of choice. Dating apps are available, statistically women all try to get into a relationship with the same 1% of men - who sleep around and cause toxicity all around. The remaining 99% become bitter and consequently... Are even less attractive to women.
Just to be clear, in case someones brain has completely rotten through and interprets any blame into my comment: neither sex is responsible for this. Our society just decided to move on from gender roles, for supposedly economic reasons.
The consequences are felt both for women and men, with both feeling less valued and miserable on average. Which understandably makes them less attractive to the other sex again.
Still not a full list of factors at play btw, there is also the builtup of micro plastics in the men's balls, harming sperm production along with normalization of pornography, reducing the sexual frustration of people and consequently making them less driven to find partners. There is also the influencer industry, purposefully encouraging para social relationships, satisfying the social urges of a lot of people, consequently reducing the likelihood of them seeking out friendships... Reducing the likelihood of meeting other people and thus reducing the likelihood of getting a natural relationship through that.
Third places have also mostly vanished, likely related to multiple of these effects to etc pp
> statistically women all try to get into a relationship with the same 1% of men - who sleep around and cause toxicity all around. The remaining 99% become bitter and consequently... Are even less attractive to women.
As a regular 30s dude, definitely not 1% by any measure, app dating had its rough spots but generally was a good time, I experienced no bitterness.
Instead I met a bunch of interesting people and found my partner. We now own a house and are talking about kids.
The real toxicity here is the idea that women at large are somehow responsible for anyone's lack of dating success.
For anyone reading this who might be dating and feel disheartened- the hard truth is that you have two options: you can either blame the group of people you're trying to attract for having faulty preferences, or you can reflect and work on yourself and your approach. Only one of these has any chance of helping you.
One thing I do agree with you on: bitterness is extremely unattractive.
For context, I don’t want this to sound bitter. The first time I was single as an adult was from 1996-2002 and dating apps weren’t a thing. The second time I was single was from 2006-2011 and I wasn’t really trying to date and spent most of the time getting my head back in the game and just hanging out with female friends until I started dating my now wife who I met at work. Even she had to make the first move.
That being said as five foot four guy, the chance of me having any success on a dating app at the time from everything I know would have been basically 0 no matter what. “Working on myself” would have done no good. I was objectively in great shape as a part time fitness instructor and I just run my first (and last) two half marathons before I met my wife.
Some guys just haven’t won the genetic lottery to succeed on dating apps. Again I’m not bitter as one of the relatively few straight male fitness instructors, it wasn’t hard to date during my first stint of singleness
FWIW, one of my (male) friends is about 5'2" and met his wife on OKCupid. She's about 4'10".
Dating is kinda like founding a startup or getting a job, in that you have to kiss a lot of frogs, but you only need to succeed once. The point's to eliminate all the unsuitable prospects in the pool and find the one that is a match for you.
> Dating is kinda like founding a startup or getting a job, in that you have to kiss a lot of frogs, but you only need to succeed once. The point's to eliminate all the unsuitable prospects in the pool and find the one that is a match for you.
That's true, but dating apps are still a pretty toxic technology. It's got kind of a McNamara fallacy baked into it, they encourage users to setup filters on easy-to-quantity aspects (height, age) in a fairly thoughtless way, and entourage superficial, consumeristic evaluations. Most people would probably benefit from IRL interactions, which present a more holistic picture.
You miss read. The parent thread said:
> the women has am easier time not to commit and just sleep around
That's for women.
The second time they mentioned sleep round:
> Dating apps are available, statistically women all try to get into a relationship with the same 1% of men - who sleep around and cause toxicity all around.
They mean the 1% of men are the ones who sleep around.
Also, I think it is better to interpret "sleep around" as the state of having non-committed sex relationship with non-marital partner. It is a description of a fact rather than an accusation. Though the words may sound harsh.
Perhaps there's a constructive version of this because I agree with the sentiment but it's a little harsh - dude is obviously feeling very betrayed and left out of society and either falling down the incel tunnel or doing recruiting for it.
There's some fallacies here like "anyone not acting in stereotypical Protestant gender roles must therefore be recklessly promiscuous" and that if some people don't want to have kids with some women then therefore -nobody- will do it.
Good luck out there everybody - the world changes in fascinating ways and it can definitely run some folks over but try not to get jaded and fall down a despair spiral.
They’re not completely wrong though. Data does show clearly that online dating has extremely lopsided behaviors. Women really do tend to message the top cohort of men by attractiveness much more so. Men have a more expected distribution. I think that causes a lot of men to really resent dating and women because they struggle and put in enormous effort and get nothing back. Online dating is a very toxic modern invention.
> There's some fallacies here like "anyone not acting in stereotypical Protestant gender roles must therefore be recklessly promiscuous"
That fallacy isn't in there.
Also, I would like to point out that almost all women have had more then 0 sexual partners before wedding. Hence your statement would actually be kinda correct of you remove the "recklessly". And that's definitely another contributer to declining birth rates/families - because neither of them will feel remotely as committed to each other then they would've otherwise.
None of these are singular causes. They're all contributing to the whole situation. Which is precisely why I never made any such fallacy in my earlier comment.
> Also, I would like to point out that almost all women have had more then 0 sexual partners before wedding
By the 1700s the pregnant before marriage rate was roughly 30%. So about a third of all women in the 1700s had premarital sex that resulted in pregnancy. So the actual rate is of course even higher.
A lot of those marriages are a direct result of the pregnancy, too - one thing that did happen was the couple being pushed into marriage ASAP when the pregnancy was discovered.
> Also, I would like to point out that almost all women have had more then 0 sexual partners before wedding. Hence your statement would actually be kinda correct of you remove the "recklessly".
Having premarital sex is not everyone's definition of "promiscuous".
I agree, which itself is also contributing to falling birth rates. I think everyone in this thread is imagining me as a bitter incel being outraged by not getting the attention I supposedly deserve, which couldn't be further from the truth.
I'm merely observing a lot of factors which in aggregate can unquestionably be seen as causing this.
The reality is that the traditional gender roles where very positive in the context of reproduction, which was literally my first sentence of my first comment.
It is not a judgement on wherever we should aim to revert to them, it's just factual.
Arguing against that is basically at a level of arguing that water isn't wet.
Now to link this back to the discussion at hand: a significant chunk of society would consider premarital sex with people whom they aren't planning to marry to be promiscuous. And those people are part of the population which wouldve become families in a different age.
You keep claiming the things you're saying are unarguable and as obvious as water being wet, in a thread of folks repeatedly talking about the nuances and differences.
Birth rates going down seems to be a thing. That's about all I agree are facts here. I struggle to even meet you at "traditional gender roles" like that's some universal constant - is that Protestant America? Catholic Ireland? Is that one of the Chinese dynasties? Sub-saharan African tribal society?
I think, like most things, it's unlikely you've found the "as obvious as water being wet" single smoking gun to a broader solution.
Social pressure to marry young and breed will clearly have an effect on birth rates. I'd be surprised if anyone would disagree there, all other things being equal. It feels ridiculous to assert that is the only possible influence and even more ridiculous to assert one particular set of social norms is the only way back. I know so many people that don't fit this incredibly narrow view, including everything from "traditional" couples not wanting kids (for lots of different reasons from money to global stability to being jaded to genuinely not caring) to very very not "traditional" people who ARE having kids.
If this is worth talking about I think it's worth taking in more info than just blaming resentment over women being more empowered over their own lives (or more slutty or more undesirable or however you want to frame it).
Well, that's what happens when the dollar is the idol that people worship. When society collapses because of that, we will have deserved it because we worked our asses off to create the perverse incentives that led us there.
The answer is to remove the parents. Give birth and let the state raise the child. The parents continue to work and live childless without the costs and responsibilities. Society pays and gives this group an equal playing field.
So Woman have to be pregnant for 9 months for only the state to go take the baby away.
Are you gonna suggest that State enforces procreation too?
This "answer" that you are saying is this close to being an Eugenics project. A govt. which has its officers arrest/detain babies because of their race and you are saying that these are the people that the babies should be left?
Also consider these people in your answer to be the slaves of the govt. because we live in a free world and yet propaganda can be so effective. I can't imagine what the propaganda can be if State raises the child.
Yes, Instead of trying to make the economy affordable so that childcare can be affordable, we go ahead and let the states raise our children.
Has even the notion of affordability become so foreign that we have forgotten it can exist?
I sincerely hope you were joking with this message and this wasn't the first thing which came into your mind.
Kinda like in Brave New World, or The Giver - or, for that matter, in hundreds of orphanages in real life?
This doesn't really work either. Having been loved by an attachment figure (usually a parent) seems to be essential to normal psychosocial development. Without it, kids can't really form bonds or groups. They never learn to trust, and without the ability to trust, they can't work in concert with other people. They end up violent and criminal.
If you tried to do this society-wide, society would collapse. Everybody would simply try to grab what they could and kill everybody else.
The rumor I heard was that high-level Pentagon generals had subtly suggested that Trump target Iran. The reason was to distract his attention from Greenland. Logic goes that if you have a reality TV star who built his brand on being a tough guy in the White House, it's far better that he attack a theocratic dictatorship that funds a host of terrorist organizations and whose country is already on the verge of collapse than a NATO ally and fellow democracy that didn't do anything to us.
Was a news article from a reputable source (Reuters or PBS?), around the time of the Greenland flap in early January, but Google Search now sucks and the results are all polluted with news articles from the strikes today so I wasn't able to find it again.
In typical jury trials, the jury is instructed that any terms not defined in the relevant statutes are to have their common-sense, ordinary meanings as understood by the jury. The jury is usually also selected to be full of reasonable, moderate people, and folks who are overly pedantic usually get excused during voir dire.
Do you really think a pool of 12 people off the street is going to consider an embedded system, wi-fi router, or traffic light as an "operating system" under this law? Particularly since they don't even have accounts or users as a common-sense member of the public would understand them?
Not sure why you are appealing to the rule on terms that aren’t defined, since the actual question is whether or not thet consider the vendor of the software powering the device as an “operating system vendor” which is, in fact, defined in the law, and the answer there seems to be hinge on whether or not they think it is a general purpose compute device, which would seem almost certain to be no for a traffic light, and likely to be no (but more debatable and potentially variable from instance to instance) in the other cases you list.
> Particularly since they don't even have accounts or users as a common-sense member of the public would understand them?
Not sure what having accounts or users “as a common sense member if the public would understand them” is relevant to since, to the extent having a “user” is relevant in the law, it to is defined (albeit both counterintuitively and circularly) in the law, and having an “account” isn’t relevant to the law at all.
I've gone through the process a few times. It does not instill confidence in the system. And that's not including the emotional manipulation tactics that typically take place in jury trials.
MOST cases don't make it to jury. They're more likely to be resolved via motions and countermotions and the decisions of a jduge.
To dumb down "operating system" for normies, they're probably going to say something along the lines of "the software that makes your computer work.. like Windows." If it stays at that level, we'll have a specific, discrete definition in play.
A broader, equally correct definition could be "the software that makes technology work.. there's an operating system on your computer, your cell phone, your Alexa, and even your car." Then yes, some people will think of their Ring doorbell, the cash register at the coffee shop, and other embedded systems, even if they've never heard the word "embedded."
The definition that shows up will depend entirely on a) the context of the case and b) the savviness of the attorneys involved.
Defendants can always opt for a judge to rule on the case.
At that point, what the law actually says matters a lot (unless the judge is corrupt, which is becoming more common in the US, but with corrupt judges, it doesn’t really matter how good or bad the laws is).
You'll be arrested for some weird law that doesn't make sense, but it's ok because a pool of 12 people off the street won't consider whatever random thing you did a real crime!
U.S. Civil War? Roman Crisis of the 3rd Century? Russian Revolution? England's War of the Roses? China's periodic dynastic changes?
They usually don't come back with the same political organization - that's sorta the point. But plenty of civilizations come back in a form that is culturally recognizable and even dominate afterwards.
Android's investing significantly in reducing the memory usage of the next release simply because the BOM cost of RAM for their low-end partners is becoming prohibitive.
But if that new or different because of this event? No it's not, Android has had several initiatives to enable low end devices, from optimizing full fatter Android, to inventing new versions of Android.
Android has been talking about these kinds of things for a long time. But if they're actually meaningfully making progress on them, it's most likely because of real pressure. (He types on his phone with 6GB of ram)
In this case it is explicitly because of the RAMpocalypse. The initiatives have existed forever but they've gotten a lot more funding and a lot more exec attention because of the situation in the hardware market.
FWIW most experts now favor approval voting [1] over ranked choice. Approval voting has similar advantages as ranked choice in allowing 3rd-party candidates and favoring moderate candidates. It avoids the chaotic behavior that RCV can exhibit [2] where shifts in the order of voters' down-ballot preferences can very significantly alter the outcome of the election [3]. And it's also much easier to explain to voters ("It's like voting today, except you vote for everybody you'd find acceptable and the best candidate wins. Sorta like when you're picking a restaurant to go out to with friends - you go to the place that is acceptable to the greatest number of people, not the one that a minority really want to go to"), doesn't require that you reprint ballots (you can re-use normal FPTP ballots, but you just count all votes instead of disqualifying ballots with multiple candidates marked), and is easily adapted to proportional representation and multi-member elections (you just take the top-N best candidates instead of the top-1).
there's no such thing as "acceptable" or not, there are just utilities and _relative_ satisfaction. you want to get the most satisfaction possible from the options you have.
What does what look like? Approval voting? The unacceptable (usually extreme) candidates fail to get votes and so get booted out of office, with their places taken by more moderate, common-sense candidates.
FPTP, particularly with partisan primaries, has the misfeature that you need to rally the base in order to win the crowded primary field. This leaves only extremist candidates heading toward the general election. In a country like the U.S. where voting is not compulsory, this turns off the moderate electorate, who are forced to choose between two extreme candidates that both seem batshit crazy, and encourages them to stay home.
It's the attention mechanism at work, along with a fair bit of Internet one-up-manship. The LLM has ingested all of the text on the Internet, as well as Github code repositories, pull requests, StackOverflow posts, code reviews, mailing lists, etc. In a number of those content sources, there will be people saying "Actually, if you go into the details of..." or "If you look at the intricacies of the problem" or "If you understood the problem deeply" followed by a very deep, expert-level explication of exactly what you should've done differently. You want the model to use the code in the correction, not the one in the original StackOverflow question.
Same reason that "Pretend you are an MIT professor" or "You are a leading Python expert" or similar works in prompts. It tells the model to pay attention to the part of the corpus that has those terms, weighting them more highly than all the other programming samples that it's run across.
I don’t think this is a result of the base training data („the internet“). It’s a post training behavior, created during reinforcement learning. Codex has a totally different behavior in that regard. Codex reads per default a lot of potentially relevant files before it goes and writes files.
Maybe you remember that, without reinforcement learning, the models of 2019 just completed the sentences you gave them. There were no tool calls like reading files. Tool calling behavior is company specific and highly tuned to their harnesses. How often they call a tool, is not part of the base training data.
Modern LLM are certainly fine tuned on data that includes examples of tool use, mostly the tools built into their respective harnesses, but also external/mock tools so they dont overfit on only using the toolset they expect to see in their harnesses.
IDK the current state, but I remember that, last year, the open source coding harnesses needed to provide exactly the tools that the LLM expected, or the error rate went through the roof. Some, like grok and gemini, only recently managed to make tool calls somewhat reliable.
Of course I can't be certain, but I think the "mixture of experts" design plays into it too. Metaphorically, there's a mid-level manager who looks at your prompt and tries to decide which experts it should be sent to. If he thinks you won't notice, he saves money by sending it to the undergraduate intern.
The router that routes the tokens between the "experts" is part of the training itself as well. The name MoE is really not a good acronym as it makes people believe it's on a more coarse level and that each of the experts somehow is trained by different corpus etc. But what do I know, there are new archs every week and someone might have done a MoE differently.
Check out Unsloths REAP models, you can outright delete a few of the lesser used experts without the model going braindead since they all can handle each token but some are better posed to do so.
This is a very useful take, thank you. Really helped me to adjust my mental model without "antropomorphising" the machinery. Upvoted.
If I may, I would re-phrase/expand the last sentence of yours in a way that makes it even more useful for me, personally. Maybe it could help other people too. I think it is fair to say that in presence of hints like "Pretend you are X" or "Take a deeper look" the inference mechanism (driven by it's training weights, and now influenced by those hints via "attention math") is not "satisfied" until it pulls more relevant tokens into "working context" ("more" and "relevant" being modulated by the particular hint).
I think it does more harm than good on recent models. The LLM has to override its system prompt to role-play, wasting context and computing cycles instead of working on the task.
It’s not cargo culting, it does make a difference and there are papers on arxiv discussing it. The trouble is that it’s hard to tell whether it’ll help or hurt - telling it to act as an expert in one field may improve your result, or may make it lose some of the other perspectives it has which might be more important for solving the problem.
Papers I read on arxiv mostly say that persona prompting changes tone of voice and attitude, but not the quality of the answer, at least statistically.
You will never convince me that this isn't confirmation bias, or the equivalent of a slot machine player thinking the order in which they push buttons impacts the output, or some other gambler-esque superstition.
These tools are literally designed to make people behave like gamblers. And its working, except the house in this case takes the money you give them and lights it on fire.
Why are you dodging the question if you are so confident in your abilities? Why not allow me to embarrass myself infront of your customers with my inferior approach, forever cementing your superiority?
Different sets of people, and different audiences. The CEO / corporate executive crowd loves AI. Why? Because they can use it to replace workers. The general public / ordinary employee crowd hates AI. Why? Because they are the ones being replaced.
The startups, founders, VCs, executives, employees, etc. crowing about how they love AI are pandering to the first group of people, because they are the ones who hold budgets that they can direct toward AI tools.
This is also why people might want to remain anonymous when doing an AI experiment. This lets them crow about it in private to an audience of founders, executives, VCs, etc. who might open their wallets, while protecting themselves from reputational damage amongst the general public.
I have been in dozens of meetings over the past year where directors have told me to use AI to enable us to fire 100% of our contract staff.
I have been in meetings where my director has said that AI will enable us to shrink the team by 50%.
Every single one of my friends who do knowledge work has been told that AI is likely to make their job obsolete in the next few years, often by their bosses.
You don' have to look past this very forum, most people here seem to be very positive about gen AI, when it comes to software development specifically.
Lots of folk here will happily tell you about how LLMs made them 10x more productive, and then their custom agent orchestrator made them 20x more productive on top of that (stacking multiplicatively of course, for a total of 200x productivity gain).
I don't know what is your bubble, but I'm a regular programmer and I'm absolutely excited even if a little uncomfortable. I know a lot of people who are the same.
I am using AI a lot to do tasks that just would not get done because they would take too long. Also, getting it to iterate on a React web application meant I can think about what I want it to do rather than worry about all the typing I would have to do. Especially powerful when moving things around, hand-written code has a "mental load" to move that telling an AI to do it does not.
Obviously not everything is 100% but this is the most productive I have felt for a very long time. And I've been in the game for 25 years.
Why do you need to move things around? And how is that difficult?
Surely you have an LSP in your editor and are able to use sed? I've never had moving files take more than fifteen minutes (for really big changes), and even then most of the time is spent thinking about where to move things.
LLM's have been reported to specifically make you "feel" productive without actually increasing your productivity.
I mean there are two different things. One is whether there are actual productivity boosts right now. And the second is the excitement about the technology.
I am definitely more productive. A lot of this productivity is wasted on stuff I probably shouldn't be writing anyways. But since using coding agent, I'm both more productive at my day job and I'm building so many small hobby projects that I would have never found time for otherwise.
But the main topic of discussion in this thread is the excitement about technology. And I have a bit mixed feelings, because on one hand side I feel like a turkey being excited for the Thanksgiving. On the other hand, I think the programming future is bright. there will be so much more software build and for a lot of that you will still need programmers.
My excitement comes from the fact that I can do so much more things that I wouldn't even think about being able to do a few months ago.
Just as an example, in last month I have used the agents to add features to the applications I'm using daily. Text editor, podcast application, Android keyboard. The agents were capable to fork, build, and implement a feature I asked for in a project where I have no idea about the technology. Iif I were hired to do those features, I would be happy if I implemented them after two weeks on the job. With an agent, I get tailor made features in half of a morning. Spending less than ten minutes prompting.
I am building educational games for my kids.
They learn a new topic at school? Let me quickly vibe the game to make learning it fun. A project that wouldn't be worth my weekend, but is worth 15 minutes. https://kuboble.com/math/games/snake/index.html?mode=multipl...
So I'm excited because I think coding agents will be for coding what pencil and paper were for writing.
I don't understand the idea that you "could not think about implementing a feature".
I can think of roughly 0 fratures of run-of-the-mill software that would be impossible to implement for a semi-competent software developer. Especially for the kinds of applications you mention.
Also it sounds less like you're productive and more like the vibeslop projects are distracting you.
I produce more good (imo) production features despite being distracted.
The features I mention is something that I would be able to do, but only with a lot of learning and great effort - so in practical terms I would not.
It is probably a skill issue but in the past many times I downloaded the open source project and just couldn't build and run it. Cryptic build errors, figuring out dependencies. And I see claude gets the same errors but he just knows how to work around those errors.
Setting up local development environment (db, dummy auth, dummy data) for a project outside of my competence area is already more work than I'm willing to do for a simple feature. Now it's free.
>I can think of roughly 0 fratures of run-of-the-mill software that would be impossible to implement for a semi-competent software developer.
Yes. I'm my area of competence it can do the coding tasks I know exactly how to do just a bit faster. Right now for those tasks I'd say it can one shot code that would take me a day.
But it enables me to do things in the area where I don't have expertise. And getting this expertise is very expensive.
I have a large C# application. In this application I have a functionality to convert some group of settings into a tree model (a list of commands to generate this tree). There are a lot of weird settings and special cases.
I asked claude to extract this logic into a separate python module.
It succesfully one-shot that, and I would estimate it as 2 days work for me (and I wrote the original C# code).
This is probabaly the best possible kind of task for the coding agents, given that it's very well defined task with already existing testcases.
Have they stated the justification for this anywhere? You'd think a site that brands itself as being for hackers would value its users having control over their comments/privacy.
There's value in editing for clarity within a window of a live discussion. After the live discussion is less active, it's important to be able to reference things or see a coherent view of the discussion and what people were responding to.
Yes, it's because the comments create a discussion thread that then becomes impossible to follow (or worse, misleading) if certain comments within it are either deleted or edited to say something different. The idea is that what you write becomes communal property once it's been responded to, because it's part of a community discussion that loses meaning if people start deleting individual comments.
I've seen videos where people will put in removable drywall panels that can just be lifted out for access.
There are a lot of downsides though. You lose airsealing, if you don't have an airtight building envelope on the outside of the drywall. You lose fire resistance. You often lose aesthetics, although I've seen this done extremely tastefully. You lose childproofing, and run the risk of a kid electrocuting themselves or destroying your plumbing or dropping stuff in the wall. You impose constraints on what can go on the walls and where your furniture can go.
Given that drywall is pretty easy to cut and replace, most people figure it's just not worth the costs for something you do infrequently.
The long-term effects are going to be much like the effect of the software industry turning away from juniors: total collapse. When you have no workforce, you'll do no work - hell, there is just...nothing, nonexistence, no consumers either. But the fertility bust operates on a longer timescale (I think the software industry will start feeling the dearth of juniors in ~5 years, the economy as a whole won't feel the dearth of children for ~5), and it's far more fundamental. Rather than one industry disappearing, all industries will disappear, likely refactored into something that looks far different.
It also reminds me of those ecological predator/prey/locust models that I studied in calculus class, where population dynamics for many species have a tendency to overshoot the carrying capacity of the environment. Each individual in the population makes their own reproductive & survival decisions, but the sum total of them leads to population collapse and a near total extinction, followed by recovery once the survivors find resources abundant again.
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