on point 1, an important thing to know is that these markets have a non-linear fee structure where the rate is higher near 0.5 and lower near tail prices
True, but from the pdf it seems like the fee charged of market makers is 1.75¢ × P × (1-P) per contract. Near P=0 that's approximately 1.75% of the notional amount invested, but near P=1 that's approximately 1.75% of the potential gain.
As I read it, the implication is that a market maker in the high-P regime needs to still have an expected edge of 1.75% to profit net of fees, which means that the 'maker return' table in this article is net negative after fees for all categories save for entertainment, media, and world events.
Fees are also waved if a market maker hits a certain monthly quota. With the recent adoption of “professional” market makers on the platform, I’m sure they can get around such fees.
I will also add to the 2nd point that some of these platforms due give fixed interest to positions in unresolved markets.
> Why is Kalshi structured with these yes vs. no options for all outcomes?
it's basically how they do margin. otherwise you wouldn't be able to sell / post asks without already having a long position. for kalshi, it's actually one single security in the background they just present it as two order books (but really it's one). for polymarket, they are two distinct products that trade separately, and technically could have arbitrage between them. although in practice they're normally priced correctly to sum to 1 (or 1.01)
Honestly why I would really apprechiate something like this, hn is not an explain platform.
For sure, some words or feedback on what you understood (did you get it right) etc. yeah.
But otherwise, if you do not understand a research paper, you have to do the same hard work as everyone else. Sitting down, going through it paragraph by paragraph and learning it. This takes massive time.
and for a high level overview, chatgpt and co are really really good getting papers.
SF has a relatively high ratio of housing units to population compared to other cities in the US and a 9.7% vacancy rate. By the numbers, it has an oversupply of housing.
That is not a valid interpretation of the data. The ratio you cite, which is a pointless one, is mostly influenced by household size. SF has a relatively small household size compared to the state and nation. The vacancy rate you cite is also not a useful one that people generally understand. There were 19000 units for sale or rent during the last ACS survey, out of 418000 physical dwellings, and that's only 4.5% which is very low by historical standards.
1. food trucks are subject to lots of regulation and fees too
2. burrito trucks sell their burritos at the market clearing price for a burrito, which is $18 because most of that burrito truck's competition is brick-and-mortar restaurants with expensive rent because of zoning laws.
A lot of the interesting food trucks around me are routinely more expensive than the brick and mortar stores around, often due to the novelty of the cuisine.
if you are going to have a rebuttal, at least give a little bit why my take is lazy analysis. (and i'm aware your argument exists, and it's also wrong!)
They won't, I genuinely believe the vast majority of Americans will call for war, invasion, etc if the price of their "treats" (TVs, cars, gas, ...) gets too out of reach.
Consumer prices are the only category that hasn't gone up in price in the last couple of decades. It's basically the only little "treat" you can look forward to while toiling away for peanuts
I just cannot stomach the number of people who apparently value nothing except displays of performative cruelty and childish tantrums.
There's been a significant shift of an "ow-I-touched-the-stove" variety towards sanity among independents, but it's a Problem that some significant double-digit percentage of the nation just plain likes this violent self-destructive flailing, and will reward anything as long as it makes them feel like somebody is getting hurt.
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