8. The credit market tied to the data center buildout implodes. The contagion spreads similar to 2008.
It is ironic that people got laid off due to capitol allocation for compute capacity and people will get laid off when there isn't much ROI and things crash.
>> The danger is removing the review systems and pretending the output is expert-level just because it seems to be working correctly.
This is what is happening. In the rush to adopt AI many are abandoning sane engineering principles/processes lest one gets left behind. Only to rediscover them on failure, hoping it is not catastrophic.
They stopped being used as primary weapons because better ones were found - mostly firearms - not because people got bored of it; or reverted to some earlier methods of warfare.
Yes, there is the general class of technologies (warfare, computing ...) and there are particular instances of those for a given time and space and evolve as the landscape changes.
The technology of warfare evolved to better mechanisms, perhaps same with computing.
Bows and arrows are still widely used for hunting all over the world. I was able do freelance work on a relatively low income because of access to ~150lbs of deer meat that came from multiple bow-hunted deer.
This is an interesting question that I haven't thought about, thanks.
What we currently have is a simulacrum of thought - albeit a good one.
Any technology is useful only in the sense that it helps us with solving the problems we are dealing with in that time. When we face issues that a pseudo-thought is not useful in tackling or worse is one of the causes - this will recede in the background.
Beyond that, the implicit assumption in the question is that thinking is the highest form of activity that is useful to us.
I don't know how my thoughts arise but thinking happens when I engage with them. I think what we look for is meaning in our lives and thinking helps us generate/achieve one, whether real or illusory.
I don't know about you, but I can buy bows and arrows at hundreds of sporting goods stores in my local area alone, and I even know of 2 local blacksmith shops that sell swords.
Castles still exist as well, you just aren't invited to them (which was true for us peasants back in the day, too). Trump is still trying to get one built under the ruins of the East Wing, in fact.
But are these actually completely different technologies, and if so, where is the dividing line? Firearms certainly have not decreased in significance, and they're the modern version of a bow, which is simply 2 iterations later in propulsion methods: tensioned string -> high-tension cable -> high-pressure gas.
Are LLMs really going to fall off in significance, or will it just be the nth newest incarnation of LLMs?
The function of what an LLM does (generative language) is what people seem to take issue with, but the function is here to stay, even if the next iteration has a different name or method.
The difference is in what other enabling technologies do you need to achieve it. Advanced technologies sit on a pyramid. One can build a bow and an arrow from sticks, string and rock. For reliable firearm we need chemistry and advanced metallurgy.
My view wasn't whether generative language is here to stay or not but rather will it continue to be a significant thing or not.
>> No, space is an end run around dealing with bureaucracy and politics. It's space. There's basically nobody to tell you "no" up there.
>> So they'll go to the place where they do not need to ask anyone.
>> Anyway, space has none of those problems. Indeed, the problems are almost all technical.
This is pretty naive. What happens when one of the other sovereign nation destroys your space assets or holds them hostage. There is also no defense in space.
You think Grand Forks ND or Tempe Arizona is going to say, “we’re going to shoot down your datacenters?”
Of course not. The only people to stop you is like 6 nation states that have the capability to tell you no, you know? Maybe less? And most of them all need your launch capabilities?
Cmon. Who is going to tell them no? The US government? And jeopardize NRO satellite launch abilities or whatever? No, the Feds won’t stand in the way.
Destroying a satelite is much easier than launching one, even with existing systems. Worse, given rate of improvements, I think we're going to get ground-to-orbit anti-satelite lasers before 10% of this constellation gets launched.
And at least one of the nations with the existing military capacity to make a "no" stick is currently considering criminal charges against Musk personally, while another has a long history of assassination including of their own oligarchs.
I do not think this is true? I mean, the point seems valid, but how many countries have ASAT capabilities? Then how many countries actually want to use that? Then even if we could get ground-to-orbit ASAT lasers (obligatory "pew pew"), then what countries will push that particular button?
I'm sorry, at least in this exact moment I don't see it. Even if france wants to bring charges against Musk, are they going to start downing his satellites? That seems like a leap. This kind of further illustrates my point. In space, you're literally kind of "above" the fray...
The problem here is that N different users will ask for N different variants of the same tool, so you'll end up with a tool which is similar but not quite. Is the tool updated to support new functionality, or a new tool is created and you end up with N variants of a tool.
You could flip it around. These companies wouldn't exist without California. The state had the conditions where these companies could germinate and thrive. Elsewhere they might, they might not.
In an alternate reality Mr Brin could still be a billionaire owner of a company not based in CA and he would still have to face this issue or he may not.
But we are here and question is why they don't think it is ok to pay these taxes. It is interesting to see their actions. There is some double think here - they want to cut ties and move out, yet want to influence the state. A sibling comment rightly said - they could be heroes by spending money that would be just a drop in the bucket for them, but instead choose to do this - still spend that money. The old adage seems true, you didn't become rich by doing that.
Now I understand one may not be happy the way the state allocates the funds - but that is a different discussion.
When Duke Wellington was asked what was his most difficult battle, he mentioned the Battle of Assaye. He said he found the Maratha troops equal to the European military . His horse was killed under him and he was lucky to live through the battle.
Maybe, the fate of Europe and that of India would have been different if he hadn't that day.
It is ironic that people got laid off due to capitol allocation for compute capacity and people will get laid off when there isn't much ROI and things crash.
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