That said, I've been watching elections and presidential politics in the US very closely since Watergate. Trump is very likely to win this election. There are many factors in play that the pundit and pollster class don't understand, and don't seem to care to understand. In this scenario, both the large crowds (polls) and the moderate crowds (expert panels) are likely to miss the mark by wide margins.

This is not because the experts lack expertise, but rather because this election has some unusual features that have not been seen for a couple of generations at least, and their models (mental and statistical) don't seem to be taking account of that. Humans have a nasty habit of switching motives without notice.