but who is looking only at a single data point? We have more information than that, namely, the strongly consistent incorrect direction of the prediction markets, as the uncertainly decreased (40% to 25% in the last week, and 25% to 11% in the last day). It is clear that there was a feedback loop into the predictors. These markets appeared structurally biased towards the larger odds -> this is where the profit motive is possibly distorting.