In favor of it already being too late: TOL is back to where it was six years ago, with three times the sales now vs then, and for practical purposes infinite more profit (they only finally got back to profitable in 2Q12). What would the short thesis be against that setup? It certainly does look like a lot of downside is built in now. Meanwhile HD is trampling estimates.

We've got no inventory build (the exact opposite, a painful dearth of inventory). The job market is extremely strong. Mortgage defaults aren't soaring. Household debt isn't soaring. A value stagnation (wages aren't rising fast enough) looks like the most likely bad scenario for now, instead of a meaningful correction.