At current progress, Intel will have a 10nm ready for a Q4 2022 release, excluding processors that would rather melt through the mainboard than run demanding tasks (or doubling as space heater).
The thing is, by 2022 they will likely have 7nm which is a totally separate team and effort and it's much more likely to succeed thanks to EUV. I have even seen late 2021 estimates for that and it's not entirely impossible they can crunch off a few months off arriving to a point where 10nm will have 2020 for it and that's it. An effort that took more than seven years and it's all going to waste.
You could still cast doubt on that, even if it were a completely separate team though.
Without knowing the causes for why Intel are failing to deliver 10nm we can't say if it's an Intel problem, or a 10nm team problem.
And even then, would they not be building on the 10nm process to develop the 7nm process to some extent? Otherwise you're reinventing the wheel twice, and may as well jump straight to 5/3/2nm processes.
There have been a bunch of rumors leaking out of Intel on the reasons. The biggest one was apparently that the Contact Over Active Gate just didn't work. That was used extensively in the GPU section of the die but not the CPU part which is why the 10nm chips released had working CPUs but no graphics. They've cut that feature from the process for the new version of 10nm which should help.
The other big rumored problem they were having was with cobalt interconnects and I have no idea if they've made it work or abandoned it or what.
Of course we don't know for sure, but there's a little precedent.
While the Pentium 4 team was churning out ever more power-hungry space heaters, a separate team came up with Pentium M. It became the basis for the Core architecture that gave Intel a 10-year monopoly.
If anyone knows that having separate teams reinvent their own wheels can have a massive payoff, it's Intel.
Who would have an advantage building a 5nm processor. Intel, or some random company that doesn't build processors?
There is institutional knowledge, built up over every new generation. Now 7nm could be different to 10nm, but they've learnt transferable knowledge from that effort, even if its just how not to do it.
