>Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed
These numbers don't make sense. What, are they assuming 100% accuracy for the tests? China is an authoritarian dictatorship with a very personal need to save face - in order to maintain order it cannot show weakness. China is lying. There is motive, circumstantial, and now with the spread in Korea and Italy, empirical evidence that China is full of it.
I think China was looking at an existential threat to the government, and so made a calculation to trade a recession for survival. Their response was unprecedented, brutal and effective. I think it goes beyond face - lying at this stage would just lead to more Wuhans and eventually collapse.
At least that’s my current thinking - I was in your camp until a week ago or so.
These numbers don't make sense. What, are they assuming 100% accuracy for the tests? China is an authoritarian dictatorship with a very personal need to save face - in order to maintain order it cannot show weakness. China is lying. There is motive, circumstantial, and now with the spread in Korea and Italy, empirical evidence that China is full of it.