Thank you for providing the source. This helps tremendously in clarifying and advancing the discussion.
We need to be careful about what exactly the WHO is reporting. In this case, they are reporting estimates of the crude fatality rate defined as deaths / total cases. This will equal the mortality rate once the outbreak is over, but has limited use during the outbreak as they call out in footnote:
> The Joint Mission acknowledges the known challenges and biases of reporting crude CFR early in an epidemic.
During the outbreak, a better but still imperfect estimate is deaths / settled cases where settled cases is the sum of deaths and recoveries. [1]
Indeed, I am basing my confidence on the trendline in the graph on page 13. The number of people infected (41K) is about two thirds now as compared to the peak (58K), and the CFR is dropping exponentially as cases resolve.
We need to be careful about what exactly the WHO is reporting. In this case, they are reporting estimates of the crude fatality rate defined as deaths / total cases. This will equal the mortality rate once the outbreak is over, but has limited use during the outbreak as they call out in footnote:
> The Joint Mission acknowledges the known challenges and biases of reporting crude CFR early in an epidemic.
During the outbreak, a better but still imperfect estimate is deaths / settled cases where settled cases is the sum of deaths and recoveries. [1]
[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22399755