I really would like to see an AWS memo which maps out common use cases and expected costs (selling points) vs actual use cases and actual costs (pain points).
I don't think there's one good answer for everyone that's going to be right.
I think the biggest issue is that far too many people assume that the AWS Savings stories are universally applicable, and that it's safe to assume AWS is going to be the cheap option.
I'm sure there are folks for whom AWS is the cheap option, but it wasn't at my last job, and it's not for my current one (even though they are using it).
More likely their service offerings are growing so fast that trying to make the pricing structure coherent is like a hyper-aggressive game of whack-a-mole.