Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

IMO Slippery slope arguments can definitely be valid. Slippery slope fallacies are failed slippery slope arguments. To successfully argue for the slippery slope, one needs to actually argue that the slope exists and will lead to the ultimate consequence with meaningful certainty. The tactic is so common in sophistry: merely stating A -> B -> C -> D -> "nuclear holocaust" does not make it so.

Like... if an event has an 80% chance of occurring as a result of an action, it seems that the event is highly likely to occur. If this has an 80% chance causing of a different event, which has an 80% chance of a different event, leading to an 80% chance of a different event, the probability of the final event from a point in time before the first event occurred would be 41%.

Arguments are a construction of information intended to induce an understanding of probability among others, and skipping steps along the way weakens trust in that conclusion.



Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: