Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

It comes from the same family as SARS and MERS. Worst case, IMHO, would be that level of mortality combined with its current R0 of 6 to 9.


Do absolute R0 numbers have meaning without a specified environment?

As in, shouldn't there be various values for R0 within a fully vaccinated community, R0 within an age group, R0 relative to the prevalence of active infection in a community, etc.?

I'm just wondering what complexity is concealed within an R0 figure. After all, if every infected person really infected 6 other people every 2 weeks or so, it would infect every person on Earth in about a year and a half.

Which is probably why R0 is distinguished from R1. Since otherwise R1 would be R0**2, and I highly doubt it is. It could be higher if viral load was a large factor (you have x% chance of picking it up when around a single carrier, but >x% if surrounded by multiple). Far more likely, it would be lower as it burned out tightly-connected groups.

Anyway, just thoughts triggered by seeing absolute R0 values.


It's best to think of R0 as a summary.

For a detailed discussion, see TWiV [792] with epidemiologist Jeff Shaman. First link in this show notes is "A guide to R"[2].

[792]: https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-792/

[2]: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02009-w


Consider R0 a rough estimate of how many people each cade infects. It's an imperfect instrument but helps communicate the idea clearly that answers "how infectious is this virus?"




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: