> Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous?
Lots of problems.
- The virus causes serious sequela; people who have been infected may have life-long damage, and some of that damage looks really bad. There's little correlation between severity of the initial infection and severity of the damage, so we don't know if vaccines help either.
- Not all people can be vaccinated. Young children can't be (their immune systems don't work the same way), people with some other underlying diseases can't be, etc. It's by no means just anti-vaxxers who are at risk.
- People aren't dying enough. Historically, this sort of pandemic only ended once the people who were genetically at risk had all died, and we're not letting that happen. Now, to be very clear: I'm not saying we should!
- Having a vaccinated population intermingling with an infections population means there's immense pressure on the virus to evade those vaccines. Many of the means by which it might do so will make it far more deadly to anyone who isn't vaccinated; Delta, for example, has adopted 'human wave tactics' to overwhelm the antibodies.
However, this does mean that history is a poor guide to what might happen.
Viruses don't generally have any reason to want their hosts dead, but there's also little evolutionary pressure for having that not happen.
We're helpfully adding pressure that's well suited to make it more deadly. Yay.
Lots of problems.
- The virus causes serious sequela; people who have been infected may have life-long damage, and some of that damage looks really bad. There's little correlation between severity of the initial infection and severity of the damage, so we don't know if vaccines help either.
- Not all people can be vaccinated. Young children can't be (their immune systems don't work the same way), people with some other underlying diseases can't be, etc. It's by no means just anti-vaxxers who are at risk.
- People aren't dying enough. Historically, this sort of pandemic only ended once the people who were genetically at risk had all died, and we're not letting that happen. Now, to be very clear: I'm not saying we should!
- Having a vaccinated population intermingling with an infections population means there's immense pressure on the virus to evade those vaccines. Many of the means by which it might do so will make it far more deadly to anyone who isn't vaccinated; Delta, for example, has adopted 'human wave tactics' to overwhelm the antibodies.
However, this does mean that history is a poor guide to what might happen.
Viruses don't generally have any reason to want their hosts dead, but there's also little evolutionary pressure for having that not happen.
We're helpfully adding pressure that's well suited to make it more deadly. Yay.