Perhaps he had something special to start two successful companies, but I still agree with GP, that doesn't necessarily transfer to special insight into global economics.

Still, a broken clock is right twice a day, and it isn't too hard to predict inflation when inflation is already happening at higher than normal levels. That's like predicting floods when its raining.

I don't think the second one is as hard as the first. Maybe the luck requirements to do it once or twice are the the same.

I agree that tech CEOs say a fair amount of dumb shit (because they tend to be brainstorming, free associative thinking types) but if you think any guy off the street could have been Jack Dorsey, if the dice had just rolled differently, then I would disagree hard.

"Any guy"? No. At least tens of thousands if not more? Probably. How many African tech billionaires do you know of? And is it a coincidence that the only two I can think of from the entire continent of 1.3 billion people (over 4× of the US) are white Afrikaners? Probably not.

Tens of thousands I think is possible- The problem is we don't know the identities of those 9,999 people. If we did, I agree the opinions of those people should be given a ton of weight.