The book "Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification" by Timur Kuran offers a good model on this topic. It explains why revolutions are so hard to predict.
Because the true preferences of members in a society can be effectively hidden for extended periods, and members all have their own threshold where they may feel compelled to reveal a preference, there is no sure way to foretell the dynamics of a revolution.
Because the true preferences of members in a society can be effectively hidden for extended periods, and members all have their own threshold where they may feel compelled to reveal a preference, there is no sure way to foretell the dynamics of a revolution.