I think it has a chance, but it's definitely on life support. All the big names from this latest attempt (Valve, HTC, Sony) have already given up on it. Facebook is trying to turn it into a thing, but I think they're just trying one last gasp on a failed acquisition before firing that team. Sony and Apple claim to have new hardware coming down the pipe, but I imagine they're feeling much less enthusiastic about it now than when they started those projects. Maybe one of those three will pull it off, but it's not looking good.
If the best they've got for all that investment is that hilariously terrible VR demo video from a couple months ago, I wouldn't bet on that team sticking around around long term.
I don't know if it will find a true mass-market product fit: annual unit sales are still in the millions, a long way from the billions of the smartphone market. But it's certainly not because the product inherently sucks.
I bet Zuckerberg is ready to swallow at least another $50 billion in losses before giving up on the VR dream. The FB/IG ad machine is sputtering but still pays for that easily.
I haven't used a Quest specifically, but I have used a number of VR headsets, both personally and for work. Regardless of the hardware tech, there just isn't a compelling user story there, and I think the market performance over the past five years bears that out. The only thing anyone talks about is Beat Saber, not even Alyx made a cultural dent. Facebook's VR demo video was frankly embarassing. There's just nothing there to attract users, it's a solution looking for a problem. Facebook certainly has the money to fund this boondoggle for eternity, but that doesn't guarantee any significant userbase or cultural impact. Like I said in my original comment, maybe Apple will strike gold and find another iPod in this, but I just don't see it happening.
Put another way: VR has the smell of 3D TVs and movies, and not the next smartphone.
It's hard to see what VR does better than pancake computing.
Superficially it's obvious - 3D! immersion!
But practically it's not at all like real 3D (no tactility at all, stupid strap-on goggles with trailing cables, weird mismatches between head movement and perspective, no integration with the real world so you're constantly anxious about bumping into the furniture, and let's not even get started on avatars etc).
So far it's just too clumsy to be a convincing substitute. It's basically only really credible as a game accessory - like a joystick, but better.
I can't see VR becoming phone-popular until two way direct neural interfaces become a polished technology. And when that happens a lot of other developments become possible at the same time.
