But there is a often a good reason to be pessimistic, mainly that it's not like you get infinite attempts in life or at anything. Life is not like practicing basketball or an instrument, in which the cost of failure is zero. Failure can have irreversible consequences professionally and personally. You have to be cautious in knowing what sort of things can trigger an irreversible failure.
In mountain biking (to use a sport where often the cost of failure is high) you must quickly identify the oncoming obstacles e.g. a rock. The thing is not to focus on the rock or else you will end up running into it.
Pessimism is a trap because, on the surface it seems very logical, but having a pessimistic mindset will insidiously influence your behavior towards negative outcomes.
You have to be aware of the rock. focusing on the rock is the problem. You start knowing where the rocks are, and then you move on to the planning the better outcome.
Being unable to move on to
the better outcome is the pessimism trap.
I’ve run across people that work so hard to be optimistic, that they clearly are denying the possibility of a problem - they are no longer aware of the rock.
Like mountain biking and ignoring (to the point of forgetting/not believing!) there are rocks, it causes some very concerning behaviors.
One of them literally kept steering for the rocks because she kept forgetting they existed.
Further, in mountain biking and other similar sports, you have to make your body move as if your action will succeed; nothing will undermine your effectiveness more than your lizard-brain's self-defense movements.
Good decision makers can recognize “one way doors” and adjust their risk tolerance accordingly.
But I think it is important to also realize that what is risky to one person, might not be risky to another. Either because they are at the end of one of the spectrums:
1. They have nothing to lose
2. They have so much, that losing doesn’t hurt them very much
Everyone in the middle of that spectrum has something to lose and will experience varying levels of painfulness if they fail.
It is easy to just call them pessimists, but they might just have a different perspective from where they are in life.
But that goes both directions. Pessimists should also realize that optimists see things differently from where they are, and not try to bring them down to their reality.
> You have to be cautious in knowing what sort of things can trigger an irreversible failure.
Sure, but that's a matter of judgement. Pessimists predict failure where success is possible and even likely. So one reasonable definition of a pessimist might be:
A pessimist is someone that is bad at predicting the future.
In my experience, what we call optimists are often just people with a superior ability to see what is possible, usually based on intelligence, experience, and knowledge. They usually are the first to recognize that the world has changed in some important way, creating an opportunity for improvement.
> In my experience, what we call optimists are often just people with a superior ability to see what is possible, usually based on intelligence, experience, and knowledge. They usually are the first to recognize that the world has changed in some important way, creating an opportunity for improvement.
Or maybe, just maybe. You don't see all the optimists who crashed and burned, and successful optimists being rare creatures given that they got past the great filter tend to get all the press and accolades as well as attention . So people look at them trying to dissect their life and pick their brain trying to find the one thing that make them go past the great filter whereas it's most likely just luck and survivorship bias.
Optimism shouldn't be ever taken into consideration as a predictor of success, that would leave lots of people bitter and desperate when they don't make it past the great filter.
Optimism and the good mood you have when you are in an optimist state is itself the reward, that's about it. The idea that everything is possible and all is up for grabs gives the brain lots of pleasure and that is a win to be enjoyed even if you fall victim of the great filter later on.
An example is people watching with wide eyes Reusable rocket launches imagining they'd live on Mars in 20 years, or those visiting cryonics centers imagining how they'll beat death or Level 5 cars autonomy.
Such goals are 100% guaranteed bullshit but the pleasure that people feel while imagining those things is real, it's very important for humans to gaslight ourselves into believing great things are possible, if you can do that for long enough then at some point death will arrive and the problem of finding meaning would take care of itself in a sense.
The leadership of a visionary such as Elon Musk in this field appears crystal clear.
The only doubt I have is that all the above should fall under the umbrella of religion/cults, not entrepreneurship.
Unfortunately there is lot of social stigma around religion , cults and tarots.
Optimists are mostly people like crypto hodl crowd or sales people who tries to convince you that everything will get better if you just buy their product or people who fall for MLM scams or those who buys lottery tickets etc. They will call you a pessimist if you disagree with them, and tells you to be more optimistic.
In my experience this kind of optimist is way more common than the "sees real world opportunities" kind. Most people are not optimists though, if you try to sell them an opportunity they will scrutinize it and most likely refuse the offer unless you are someone they trust even if they would benefit.
Haha that's a mental trick I sometimes use - imagining literally selling myself short, and asking how that could go tits up. Being a skilled pessimist I can think of a multitide of ways.
Exactly, as a society, we should be glad sacrificial optimists exist for the benefit their sacrifice randomly provides to society. But we also shouldn't scorn the pessimist for the simple fact that they understand how randomness works.
