The housing bubble really interests me because conditions are so different than 2007/8/9.
Common sense says that prices should be falling with interest rates going up, but...
- Supply is still insanely low and demand is high. Americans want to own single family homes, end of story.
- New home prices are at an all time high because the cost of materials and labor is so high. That, and people just don't want to build small/reasonable new homes any more. Everything needs to be 3000+ sqft and have luxury appliances and finishes.
- So many people are locked into a 30 or 15 year fixed-rate mortgage with only 2.5%-3.5% interest. Even if you didn't move/buy a home in the last two years, virtually every homeowner I know refinanced their mortgage to these historically low rates. Even if they could sell their house and make a nice profit, who is going to want to do that when they're then staring down the prospect of a 7%+ interest rate on their next mortgage? This also keeps supply down and, thus, prices up.
Common sense says that prices should be falling with interest rates going up, but...
- Supply is still insanely low and demand is high. Americans want to own single family homes, end of story.
- New home prices are at an all time high because the cost of materials and labor is so high. That, and people just don't want to build small/reasonable new homes any more. Everything needs to be 3000+ sqft and have luxury appliances and finishes.
- So many people are locked into a 30 or 15 year fixed-rate mortgage with only 2.5%-3.5% interest. Even if you didn't move/buy a home in the last two years, virtually every homeowner I know refinanced their mortgage to these historically low rates. Even if they could sell their house and make a nice profit, who is going to want to do that when they're then staring down the prospect of a 7%+ interest rate on their next mortgage? This also keeps supply down and, thus, prices up.