I found Peter Zeihans argument convincing that the largest generation ever, the baby boomers, are starting retiring now. From a purely demographics standpoint this leads to an increasing labor shortage of some 400k per year in 2022 to almost 1m in 2032 or so. Price for labor will go up, and people can be picky not taking every bullshit job they are offered.
Someone has to inherit all of that boomer wealth. I told my father I wanted to earn money the old fashioned way and that I was very disappointed in him retiring at 70
That's what I think should happen as well, but the reality might be disappointing.
In the past, the stock market has gone up in huge part due to government intervention. It's entirely possible that real returns in the stock market and real estate market will flatten, but expenses will continue to rise at a faster rate. Notably in healthcare. There also the possibility we'll see changes in taxation.
So yes, we'll get the boomer "wealth", but it won't be what people assume it will be. I hope I'm wrong.
