> 3 or more AWS Availability Zones, providing 99.999999999% data durability
I think you need to multiply that by the durability of amazon as a company...
I suspect that in any given year there is perhaps a 1% chance that they shut down AWS with no chance to retrieve data. (either due to world war, civil war in the usa, change in laws, banning you as a customer, change in company policy, bankrupcy, etc.)
Usually when that happens you are given a warning and a window (often of many months) when you can still access your data.
And, most likely you still have your original data. P(Data loss) = P(Bankruptcy happens dec 2022) x P(drive failure happens dec 2022).
The likelihood of the company going down one day, without notice, and, coincidentally, your regular data store getting trashed the next day is extraordinarily low. Absent some kind of end of the world scenario the two events are, for all intents and purposes, independent and low probability.
If you're planning for that scenario you've probably slipped over the line from sensible backupper to prepper.
I think it has already happened to customers based in Iran last time the USA changed their stance? I don't think those customers got any notice to download data.
"Banning you as a customer" is like a billion times more likely than any of those other things. That's the only real thing to be concerned about in that list. AWS is too big to fail; if it came to it, I bet the US Government would bail them out. But they can ban you at any time; that's a serious concern of mine and the main reason why I mirror all of my AWS data to Backblaze B2.
I think you need to multiply that by the durability of amazon as a company...
I suspect that in any given year there is perhaps a 1% chance that they shut down AWS with no chance to retrieve data. (either due to world war, civil war in the usa, change in laws, banning you as a customer, change in company policy, bankrupcy, etc.)