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> Is the depletion of oil and gas reserves not enough incentive?

No, because the problems that face a commons do not create an incentive for the individual. You need to learn this concept:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons



Tragedy of the commons is precisely what I have used to argue that prices will go up because the resources are being depleted. In this case, oil/gas is being over harvested by the individual. However, other energy sources are relatively infinite. Oil/gas happens to be cheap right now, but in the future it will not be. As the price rises, there becomes a greater incentive to seek other sources.


> As the price rises, there becomes a greater incentive to seek other sources.

This is not a valid or reliable mechanism for correcting misaligned incentives. It may occur by happenstance but is not guaranteed to happen prior to significant damage to the commons. The point of a carbon tax is to create a direct mechanism that corrects incentives in the presence of market failure. I would suggest this article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality




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