Assuming OpenAI still exists next week, right? If nearly all employees — including Ilya apparently — quit to join Microsoft then they may not be using much of the Azure credits.
It's a lot easier to sign a petition than it is to quit your cushy job. It remains to be seen how many people jump ship to (supposedly) take a spot at Microsoft.
If you’re making like 250k cash and were promised $1M a year in now-worthless paper, plus you have OpenAI on the resume, are one of the most in-demand people in the world? It would be rediculously easy to quit.
I was wondering in the mass quit scenario whether they would all go to Microsoft. Especially if they are tired of this shit and other companies offer a good deal. Or they start their own thing.
I dunno. If you were an employee and managed to maintain any doubt along the way that you were working for the devil, this move would certainly erase that doubt. Then again, it shouldn't be surprising if it turns out that most OpenAI employees are in it for more than just altruistic reasons.
I would imagine the MS jobs* would be cushier, just with less long-term total upside. For all the promise of employees having 5-50 million in potential one-day money, MS can likely offer 1 million guaranteed in the next 4 years, and perhaps more with some kind of incentives. IMHO guaranteed money has a very powerful effect on most, especially when it takes you into "Not rich, but don't technically need to work" anymore territory.
Personally I've got enough IOU's alive that I may be rich one day. But if someone gave me retirement in 4 years money, guaranteed, I wouldn't even blink before taking it.
*I think before MS stepped in here I would have agreed w/ you though -- unlikely anyone is jumping ship without an immediate strong guarantee.
>*I think before MS stepped in here I would have agreed w/ you though -- unlikely anyone is jumping ship without an immediate strong guarantee.
The details here certainly matter. I think a lot of people are assuming that Microsoft will just rain cash on anyone automatically sight unseen because they were hired by OpenAI. That may indeed be the case but it remains to be seen.
Given these people are basically the gold standard by which everyone else judges AI related talent. I'm gonna say it would be just as easy for them to land a new gig for the same or better money elsewhere.
When the biggest chunk of your compensation is in the form of PPUs (profit participation units) which might be worthless under the new direction of the company (or worth 1/10th of what you think they were), it might be actually much more of an easier jump than people think to get some fresh $MSFT stock options which can be cashed regardless.
Because he is possibly the most desireable AI researcher on planet earth. Full stop.
Also all these cats arn't petty. They are friends. I'm sure Ilya feels terrible. Satya is a pro... Won't be hard feelings.
The guy threw in with the board... He's not from startup land. His last gig was Google. He's way over his head relative to someone like Altman who was in this world the moment out of college diapers.
Poor Ilya... It's awful to build something and then accidentally destroy it. Hopefully it works out for him. I'm fairly certain he and Altman and Brockman have already reconciled during the board negotiations... Obviously Ilya realized in the span of 48hrs that he'd made a huge mistake.
> he is possibly the most desireable AI researcher on planet earth
was
There are lots of people doing excellent research on the market right now, especially with the epic brain drain being experienced by Google. And remember that OpenAI neither invented transformers nor switch transformers (which is what GPT4 is rumoured to be).
But what does Ilya regret, and how does that counter the argument that Microsoft would likely be disinclined to take him on?
If what he regrets is realizing the divergence between the direction Sam was taking the firm and the safety orientation nominally central to the mission of the OpenAI nonprofit and which is one of Ilya's public core concerns too late, and taking action aimed at stopping it than instead exacerbated the problem by just putting Microsoft in a position to take poach key staff and drive full force in the same direction OpenAI Global LLC had been under Sam but without any control fromm the OpenAI board, well, that's not a regret that makes him more attractive to Microsoft, either based on his likely intentions or his judgement.
And any regret more aligned with Microsoft's interests as far as intentions is probably even a stronger negative signal on judgement.
