> This "give money and something MAY happen, eventually" model is going to collapse on itself.
I'm not so sure, crowdfunding is certainly very attractive for people that have a track record of delivering but a consumer base that is to small for traditional publishing/production processes. Think Double Fine [1], Harebrained Schemes [2], Order of the Stick [3]. The people behind these projects have a clear, public track record of delivery and the projects wouldn't have happened without Kickstarter's crowdfunding.
There is, of course, also Kickstarter original/official goal which is funding art, but here the same principles apply. With the exception that maybe art backers are a little more accepting of late/disappointing rewards at the end.
The only real question is, is there a sufficient number of such proven projects to make Kickstarter sustainable? I'm not sure, but given the size of the internet and the available talent I would suspect so?
Naming the best possible cases is not a good defense, I could cite how much money bankers made with CDOs and yet that didn't stop the economy from collapsing.
All those cases could have been just as successful in any other platform, or even raising the money by themselves, because they have a huge fan base.
What I'm talking about is the other 99% of projects at kickstarters, the ones that weren't created by star-devs with decades of experience in the industry. Of this 99% the majority is made by anything from people without enough experience to complete idiots who only know how to make a good presentation. These projects will get the money and deliver nothing, the backers wont get their money back, further undermining the crowdfunding model.
Eventually one of the "big ones" will underdeliver too (like diaspora) and after that NOBODY will trust this system.
I'm not so sure, crowdfunding is certainly very attractive for people that have a track record of delivering but a consumer base that is to small for traditional publishing/production processes. Think Double Fine [1], Harebrained Schemes [2], Order of the Stick [3]. The people behind these projects have a clear, public track record of delivery and the projects wouldn't have happened without Kickstarter's crowdfunding.
There is, of course, also Kickstarter original/official goal which is funding art, but here the same principles apply. With the exception that maybe art backers are a little more accepting of late/disappointing rewards at the end.
The only real question is, is there a sufficient number of such proven projects to make Kickstarter sustainable? I'm not sure, but given the size of the internet and the available talent I would suspect so?
[1] - http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/66710809/double-fine-adv...
[2] - http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1613260297/shadowrun-ret...
[3] - http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/599092525/the-order-of-t...