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> for these countries it's their near abroad

How about this idea: take a page from the 1815 Congress of Vienna: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congress_of_Vienna#Later_criti...

There were grand plans for post-Napoleonic Europe, and some of them didn't work out so well (did the supplement banning the international slave trade inspire a regional power in the other hemisphere to declare the Monroe Doctrine?), but some of them are still going to this day.

In particular, faced with which of the major powers should control the alpine passes, a very Solomonic decision was taken: none[0] of them.

I'm not sure if the afghans could manage a multi-confessional multi-cultural democracy[1], but I am pretty sure they'd be happy to do armed neutrality.

EDIT: Lagniappe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fNW8OrEsn0

[0] there's a Nasruddin story in which he and his son try all four possible configurations of who rides the donkey and who walks, each time facing passersby with complaints, only to come to the conclusion that you can't simultaneously please everyone. I submit that the configuration in which no regional power has much control over a flashpoint may be more stable than the configuration in which all regional powers have some control.

[1] on the one hand, in one of the Retief stories the Corps Diplomatique Terrestrienne arrives on some planet and no sooner has the delegation explained the principle of "one three-eyed green thing, one vote" than the local Wise Offworld Gentlemen immediately derive a corollary: one less three-eyed green thing, one less vote.

On the other hand, I note that when I watch buzkashi, it seems that, for a sport which in principle is every man for himself, in practice the young guys in their 30s with excellent horses ride such that the old guys in their 50s with easy horses win the matches — a clear testimony for the ability and habit of horsetrading required to come to mutually beneficial arrangements?



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