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Because we haven’t seen any - near as we can tell - ever.

If they were possible, we should be having to constantly look up to avoid having one land on us.



Why would the cutoff be at building self replicating probes and not before that?


Because self replicating problems should have some sort of exponential growth curve, and with the age of the universe should have fairly predictable time before full coverage.

Other things wouldn’t.


What about UFO




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