Sure, but then add the evolutionary path on top of that. We had hundreds of millions of years of dinosaurs and no evidence of intelligent life.
Then you've got to consider that Earth is basically approaching its twilight years. The planet is 4.5 billion years old, macroscopic multicellular life is 600 million to a billion years old. Humans have been around for 100,000 years. In 500 million to a billion years Earth will become uninhabitable again.
Oh and our sun is unusually stable.
Throw all of this together with an added "right type of huge planetary collision" and I feel like you're writing a lot more zeros into that probability.
Of course it's possible that life could take a different path, but there was a lot of opportunity on Earth and it took a long time to get there.
All that comes after the planet is suitable for emergence, which is the focus of the conversation. We can reinvent the drake equation all day if we want, but yeah, definitely, those are more factors to consider.
Then you've got to consider that Earth is basically approaching its twilight years. The planet is 4.5 billion years old, macroscopic multicellular life is 600 million to a billion years old. Humans have been around for 100,000 years. In 500 million to a billion years Earth will become uninhabitable again.
Oh and our sun is unusually stable.
Throw all of this together with an added "right type of huge planetary collision" and I feel like you're writing a lot more zeros into that probability.
Of course it's possible that life could take a different path, but there was a lot of opportunity on Earth and it took a long time to get there.