You know, I feel like iOS and Android are recapitulating the Mac and PC wars of the '90s. Not exactly, mind you, but it feels like the same struggle between niche beauty and popular pragmatism. Between a controlled experience with a unifying vision, and plug-and-play user freedom.

One major difference is that iOS enjoys an advantage in apps that Mac never had in software. I think that could change, though. There is a positive feedback loop in which the most popular platform attracts developers and hence has the most software and so people buy that platform. I don't perceive that system to be in a stable state at the moment, much like it wasn't in, say, '88. People routinely develop for both platforms. And who knows, perhaps that will be the steady state answer this time; we're a lot better at abstraction than we used to be. But I think it's possible that Android could become popular enough (and perhaps Apple drive enough developers away), that the whole thing could pass a tipping point.

What I'm saying is, I don't think the beauty of the apps is the most powerful force in play here. I think the existence of apps is a lot more powerful. At least, that's what I think happened last time beauty fought pragmatism.

Starting with Windows 95, Windows had an objective advantage over Macintosh. The operating system supported preemptive multitasking, the hardware was considerably more powerful, and the software base was huge.

With iOS vs. Android, from the consumer's perspective, the differences are really subtle. The major issue at hand with developer freedom is hidden from view for most people.