Or 5%, right? What's the minimum amount that's "killer", on a societal level and on an industry-specific level? Human transcription might be a good case study.

Is this something people believe is a reasonable expectation?

Agreed. Next gen robotics with AI integration will do the same with blue collar workers a few years after that.

Actually, I would expect the robots to get better at blue collar work faster than LLMs at white collar work. The reason is that there are a lot of highly repetitive physical skills for which you can easily build a dataset for and then fine-tune a model.

People have built dedicated plastering robots, strawberry picking robots etc. Each robot only really needs to be good at one thing. Almost nobody is making the foolish mistake of building humanoid robots that then tackle the problem exactly the way humans do. The plastering robots spray the plaster, which is much faster.

You’ve clearly never had to troubleshoot wiring issues on a robot.

when the robots can fix themselves, then we're in really in trouble.

if humans still have to fix the robots that seems fine, as long as they run for long enough without needing rewiring.

If I could make a robot that fixes robots I’d have retired years ago.

It’s a complicated problem, and apparently very misunderstood.