Going right back to ZIRP will cede the Fed's credibility. Primary monetary creation needs to be done by the Treasury spending money for deliberate productive purposes, rather than given away as cheap undirected loans to banks so they can continue pumping up leveraged asset bubbles.

> Going right back to ZIRP

Sub 2 percent inflation, not sub 2 percent real interest rates.

I believe its no longer "sub" and now their mandate is just maintaining close to 2%

I know that the fed (Powell?) has been suggesting that 2% should be a long term average, but I took that largely to forgive their performance thus far. If they want credibility in the market long-term, they'll have to demonstrate they can return below 2% before lowering rates.

Not happening without a recession.

We heard that all through 2021-22 (or thereabouts) and it didn't happen. Why would it happen now?

Exactly my point! :)

...but if it does happen, inflation will come down, too.

The fed doesn't cause inflation, nor can the fed cure it. They can only react to it.