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We get it, all facts and figure are to be ignored. The guy on the Internet feels it in his gut (if he even lives in the area) and has some little anecdote. So just take his word it's all terrible and you should be scared of everything.


Typical response from someone who doesn't live or work in NYC. Probably lives in in MN or some other rural town. So no, I don't think you "get it."

I'm at Midtown South on 35th between 8th and 9th Aves, closer to 9th Ave. That covers the Penn Station area up to the south portion of Times Square. Compstat says we've had 15 'verified' Transit crimes YTD at my command. That's ONE of 78 precincts. But come by and see for yourself... sit in the lobby where you can see all the suspects walked in and their charges read by the patrol supervisor. Count the number of Transit suspects that come in and then compare to the BS Compstat number that says we've had 15 for the year so far.

And please, do share where you live and work.As far as how old this account is, I got it before I went to the Academy and per Dept. regulations, I never post as a MOS. Someone should make you a Det. Specialist though--you are quite a 'special' keyboard warrior/investigator. Reminds me of Shane Gillis' uncle who made the grilled cheese sandwiches.


I live in the 24th precinct and I'm sitting in my office right now a couple blocks away from you, in the midtown south precinct.

So I'm genuinely curious: if there's a constant parade of suspects coming into your building, but compstat doesn't reflect it, why the discrepancy? Are the police simply not recording these crimes?


Downgrades and straight dismissals. If there is no weapon and you do not have ID on you, you walk. Used to be, no ID, you went down to Central Booking, where you would be ID'd and be very unhappy with the conditions. That ended with COVID. Patrol sup decides charges, Not AO. Insp. gets dinged at Compstat if numbers go up, so, numbers are 'managed' -- at every command. DAT's disappear in 6 months. Most get a DAT. Why do you think everyone who could leave this job, did?


Wait, so they haul these people to your precinct, read the charges aloud (as you said before), then let them go because they don’t have ID?


When you collect data if it doesn't reflect what you know about reality, check again how you are collecting data.

If citizens no longer think reporting a crime will lead to justice, will they still report crimes?

My lived experience is that London is not as safe as it used to be. If the data tells me otherwise I will tell you a KPI driven org is gaslighting me


> I will tell you a KPI driven org is gaslighting me

That's still just the same old issue aggregate statistics vs. a data point. They tell you something, on average, is this way, but you experienced it in another way, so you say "the statistics must be wrong".

> you know about reality

So the issue is: is your model of "reality" the correct one?


The discussion thus far has been about the incentivized manipulation of the data points as they come in. Aggerating those into statistics will produce misleading and incorrect results. Its not that an an individual data point can be different than the average, its that the flow of individual data points into the average is being 'managed' as people try to 'improve' these KPIs.


Sure, but is the data collection truly incorrect? He argues that it is because "his experience" doesn't match the data. So in the end it is about data points being different than average.


I can't say for sure one way or the other. But my experience has been that people that have KPI metrics to meet will do a lot of things to game those data points to their favor.


Well, there's also Goodhart's Law [1]. Maybe that's what OP meant to reference.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law


What if it's just someone lying on the internet.


I don't live in NYC so I can't comment on what happens in NYC but when people point at data and blame social media for altering perceptions I find it disingenuous for my lived experiences in London.

You only truly realise how unsafe London is after you leave and live somewhere that is safe.


The reason we use data is because we’ve discovered, over and over, that people’s “lived experience” is actually unreliable.

Anyway obviously there’s more crime than ends up being reported, but less than people’s worst estimates.


Where'd my little cupcake go?




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