Well the issue with housing doesn't seem to be a "bubble" in the same sense. It's moreso we aren't building enough housing so the supply is limited.
With higher rates the monthly price is higher too which is contributing to un-affordability. But if rates go down then monthly payment prices would go down, which would cause prices to go up.
If rates go down because there's a substantial recession home prices may go down but many people may be out of jobs or unwilling to sell.
I personally think of a bubble has having a significant speculation component which I don't think applies wholly to the housing market in the same way it does today's stock market. The reasons that housing prices are so high, in my opinion, is primarily because of structural problems. But certainly others may feel differently or define a bubble differently.
I think that's true and even true at a zip code level for some locations. Broadly speaking though I think I stand by my assessment but always interested to hear other opinions on the topic because it is quite fascinating.
Not for at least 10 years because government is propping up house prices with their holdings of MBS, although market has definitely softened in some places.
I can't see how housing prices can drop substantially without the economy being in a rough spot. Banks will have a hard time writing home equity loans, underwater investors will tighten their belts, and worker mobility will be challenged as home owners (who have purchased in the past few years) can't sell their homes. The better hope is for prices to stagnate and incomes to rise. (not a great prospect, but better)
I can tell you if you're talking about urban centers like NYC, Chicago, Washington etc. When the United States stops immigration from wealthy immigrants. Everyone buying in my area are Chinese, Arab or Indian immigrants with far more money than the native population. They are propping up home values. Would have popped by now.
One speculation is that it will not deflate, because government has many T of debt -> need to service it -> need to print more money for that -> inflation and market gain.
