Reason 2: Consider SpaceX's Falcon 9 record in terms of flight pace, total mass delivered, etc. This gives ample reason for optimism that Starship will ultimately work... though the flight test record of Starship so far has been notably spotty.
SpaceX does not seem inclined to give up anytime remotely soon, is bringing in tremendous cash flow via Starlink and has nearly unlimited ability to raise capital. Musk presumably has enough influence in Washington to keep the FAA on board... and that is the only permission they need to keep trying as long as it takes.
Not trying to diminish SpaceX overall success and innovation - I still remember watching live the first landing of the Falcon 9 - had tears in my eyes.
Oh man, couldn’t disagree with this more strongly. SpaceX make an effort to be pretty transparent about what they’re trying to achieve and what constitutes failure. FSD is vapourware; SpaceX has been successfully launching and landing - now catching - rocket first stages for years. This is quality stuff.
I will bite - Tesla has been selling, for the past 10 years, cars that were supposedly becoming Fully Self Driving 'before the end of the year' for the past 10 years straight.
Let's say somebody bought it 5 years ago, then sold his car last year. From his perspective - was it vaporwave or not ?
Some day, it will work of course. There are other companies operating robotaxi on scale for quite a long time already. It's just not that day yet, not for Tesla at least.
Sure, but I'm talking about the tech, not the buyers who got screwed. Saying that FSD is vaporware because it is not available for a lot of Tesla owners is like saying that Waymo is vaporware because it is only launched in certain cities.
> software or hardware that has been advertised but is not yet available to buy,
for me, if I would've bought a Tesla, it would be vapourware for sure: Elon advertised it every chance he got and gets (this summer we will have it!), people bought it because of that and it's not there: that's vapourware.
I see what you mean, but I guess it depends on your definition of vapourware. I don’t think whether it’s publicly available is determinative. That fact that it’s called “full self-driving”, combined with the claims made about (let alone the money taken for it), and the length of time taken, render it vapourware for me. Duke Nukem Forever was the platonic vapourware, until it released as a complete product, at which point it ceased being vapourware. I don’t think anyone believes that FSD is the finished article, and those last few percent are critical where human lives are at risk. But I can see that reasonable minds may differ. It’s not a precise term.
> Feels like FSD for the past 10 years all over again (this time funded directly by US taxpayers).
Neither SpaceX nor Starship is subsidized in any way. SpaceX does have a contract for providing a Starship-based lander for Artemis's HLS, but that is (as with all other SpaceX government contracts) paid based on benchmarks and/or final delivery.
