And he would have. And might have won. Because his I'm-the-most-innocent-persecuted-person messaging was clearly landing.

I am surprised the grandparent poster didn't think Trump's win was at least entirely possible in January 2024, and I am on the same side of the Atlantic. All the indicators were in place.

There was basically no chance he'd actually be in prison by November anyway, because he was doing something else extremely successfully: delaying court cases by playing off his obligations to each of them.

Back then I thought his chances of winning were above 60%, and the betting markets were never ever really in favour of him losing.