> If you scale this over the next years, "manual driving is over" :-D
I ride a motorcycle. Unless you make this illegal, then no, "manual driving" is not over anytime soon. Some people actually _like_ driving, although, none of them appear to frequent hacker news.
> there is nothing that can stop this?
We learned the lesson of over automation in aviation very quickly. The best solution is very often, turn off autopilot and autothrottles, then hand fly the plane. You don't want pilots with their heads down in a computer making changes when they can, and should, just fly the plane. It also tends to reduce over all competence and harms safety particularly during equipment failures.
> and you see already today that self-driving produces already much less accidents
The utility of these statistics are harmed by the fact that "self-driving" does not occur in all the circumstances that "manual driving" does today. They're barely past the foundation stage, in a limited operational scope (cabs), and in a limited operational area (where it never snows).
> Lets come back in 10 years! :-)
I think this technology will eventually be prevalent. I think hacker news constantly gets the time lines wrong. You're going to need 25, minimum, and possibly more like 50.
As someone who loves driving, I still use full self driving (FSD) on the Tesla all the time since I got a new model Y Juniper.
And occasionally I switch to manual just because I enjoy it.
So when you talk about limited operational scope, I disagree. It’s being used by many as daily drivers (pun intended), like commutes and soccer practice, and road trips, and it’s here (from Tesla FSD v13 and definitely v14). Not 10 years away.
I want both tbh, I want the people who have no concern for learning how to drive safely that just want to commute to use these, as I believe they will be statistically safer over large numbers.
On the other hand we'll never see a full self driving 911. And I plan to drive one until I can no longer safely drive myself. It's the best therapy I've paid for.
About adoption I want to add that at some point a whole generation will turn 16/18 (legal driving age) and just not do a driver's license anymore because they will buy an autonomous car anyway. And IMO from that point on adoption will be very fast.
I ride a motorcycle. Unless you make this illegal, then no, "manual driving" is not over anytime soon. Some people actually _like_ driving, although, none of them appear to frequent hacker news.
> there is nothing that can stop this?
We learned the lesson of over automation in aviation very quickly. The best solution is very often, turn off autopilot and autothrottles, then hand fly the plane. You don't want pilots with their heads down in a computer making changes when they can, and should, just fly the plane. It also tends to reduce over all competence and harms safety particularly during equipment failures.
> and you see already today that self-driving produces already much less accidents
The utility of these statistics are harmed by the fact that "self-driving" does not occur in all the circumstances that "manual driving" does today. They're barely past the foundation stage, in a limited operational scope (cabs), and in a limited operational area (where it never snows).
> Lets come back in 10 years! :-)
I think this technology will eventually be prevalent. I think hacker news constantly gets the time lines wrong. You're going to need 25, minimum, and possibly more like 50.