If the software is, say, Audacity, who's target market isn't specifically software developers, sure, but seeing as how Claude code's target market has a lot of people who can read code and write software (some of them for a living!) it becomes material. Especially when CC has numerous bugs that have gone unaddressed for months that people in their target market could fix. I mean, I have my own beliefs as to why they haven't opened it, but at the same time, it's frustrating hitting the same bugs day after day.
> ... numerous bugs that have gone unaddressed for months that people in their target market could fix.
THIS. I get so annoyed when there's a longstanding bug that I know how to fix, the fix would be easy for me, but I'm not given the access I need in order to fix it.
For example, I use Docker Desktop on Linux rather than native Docker, because other team members (on Windows) use it, and there were some quirks in how it handled file permissions that differed from Linux-native Docker; after one too many times trying to sort out the issues, my team lead said, "Just use Docker Desktop so you have the same setup as everyone else, I don't want to spend more time on permissions issues that only affect one dev on the team". So I switched.
But there's a bug in Docker Desktop that was bugging me for the longest time. If you quit Docker Desktop, all your terminals would go away. I eventually figured out that this only happened to gnome-terminal, because Docker Desktop was trying to kill the instance of gnome-terminal that it kicked off for its internal terminal functionality, and getting the logic wrong. Once I switched to Ghostty, I stopped having the issue. But the bug has persisted for over three years (https://github.com/docker/desktop-linux/issues/109 was reported on Dec 27, 2022) without ever being resolved, because 1) it's just not a huge priority for the Docker Desktop team (who aren't experiencing it), and 2) the people for whom it IS a huge priority (because it's bothering them a lot) aren't allowed to fix it.
Though what's worse is a project that is open-source, has open PRs fixing a bug, and lets those PRs go unaddressed, eventually posting a notice in their repo that they're no longer accepting PRs because their team is focusing on other things right now. (Cough, cough, githubactions...)
> I get so annoyed when there's a longstanding bug that I know how to fix, the fix would be easy for me, but I'm not given the access I need in order to fix it.
This exact frustration (in his case, with a printer driver) is responsible for provoking RMS to kick off the free software movement.
GitHubactions is a bit of a special case, because it's mostly run in their systems, but that's when you just fork and, I mean, the problems with their (original) branch is their problem.
They are turning it into a distributed system that you'll have to pay to access. Anyone can see this. CLI is easy to make and easy to support, but you have to invest in the underlying infrastructure to really have this pay off.
Especially if they want to get into enterprise VPCs and "build and manage organizational intelligence"
The CLI is just the tip of the iceberg. I've been building a similar loop using LangGraph and Celery, and the complexity explodes once you need to manage state across async workers reliably. You basically end up architecting a distributed state machine on top of Redis and Postgres just to handle retries and long-running context properly.
But you don't have to be restricted to one model either? Codex being open source means you can choose to use Claude models, or Gemini, or...
It's fair enough to decide you want to just stick with a single provider for both the tool and the models, but surely still better to have an easy change possible even if not expecting to use it.
Codex CLI with Opus, or Gemini CLI with 5.2-codex, because they're open sourced agents? Go ahead if you want but show me where it actually happens with practical values
This is a fun thought experiment. I believe that we are now at the $5 Uber (2014) phase of LLMs. Where will it go from here?
How much will a synthetic mid-level dev (Opus 4.5) cost in 2028, after the VC subsidies are gone? I would imagine as much as possible? Dynamic pricing?
Will the SOTA model labs even sell API keys to anyone other than partners/whales? Why even that? They are the personalized app devs and hosts!
Man, this is the golden age of building. Not everyone can do it yet, and every project you can imagine is greatly subsidized. How long will that last?
While I remember $5 Ubers fondly, I think this situation is significantly more complex:
- Models will get cheaper, maybe way cheaper
- Model harnesses will get more complex, maybe way more complex
- Local models may become competitive
- Capital-backed access to more tokens may become absurdly advantaged, or not
The only thing I think you can count on is that more money buys more tokens, so the more money you have, the more power you will have ... as always.
But whether some version of the current subsidy, which levels the playing field, will persist seems really hard to model.
All I can say is, the bad scenarios I can imagine are pretty bad indeed—much worse than that it's now cheaper for me to own a car, while it wasn't 10 years ago.
If the electric grid cannot keep up with the additional demand, inference may not get cheaper. The cost of electricity would go up for LLM providers, and VCs would have to subsidize them more until the price of electricity goes down, which may take longer than they can wait, if they have been expecting LLM's to replace many more workers within the next few years.
This is a super interesting dynamic! The CCP is really good at subsidizing and flooding global markets, but in the end, it takes power to generate tokens.
In my Uber comparison, it was physical hardware on location... taxis, but this is not the case with token delivery.
This is such a complex situation in that regard, however, once the market settles and monopolies are created, eventually the price will be what market can bear. Will that actually create an increase in gross planet product, or will the SOTA token providers just eat up the existing gross planet product, with no increase?
I suppose whoever has the cheapest electricity will win this race to the bottom? But... will that ever increase global product?
___
Upon reflection, the comment above was likely influenced by this truly amazing quote from Satya Nadella's interview on the Dwarkesh podcast. This might be one of the most enlightened things that I have ever heard in regard to modern times:
> Us self-claiming some AGI milestone, that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is: the world growing at 10%.
With optimizations and new hardware, power is almost a negligible cost that $5/month would be sufficient for all users, contrary to people's belief. You can get 5.5M tokens/s/MW[1] for kimi k2(=20M/KWH=181M tokens/$) which is 400x cheaper than current pricing even if you exclude architecture/model improvements. The thing is currently Nvidia is swallowing up a massive revenue which China could possible solve by investing in R and D.
I can run Minimax-m2.1 on my m4 MacBook Pro at ~26 tokens/second. It’s not opus, but it can definitely do useful work when kept on a tight leash. If models improve at anything like the rate we have seen over the last 2 years I would imagine something as good as opus 4.5 will run on similarly specced new hardware by then.
I appreciate this, however, as a ChatGPT, Claude.ai, Claude Code, and Windsurf user... who has tried nearly every single variation of Claude, GPT, and Gemini in those harnesses, and has tested all the those models via API for LLM integrations into my own apps... I just want SOTA, 99% of the time, for myself, and my users.
I have never seen a use case where a "lower" model was useful, for me, and especially my users.
I am about to get almost the exact MacBook that you have, but I still don't want to inflict non-SOTA models on my code, or my users.
This is not a judgement against you, or the downloadable weights, I just don't know when it would be appropriate to use those models.
BTW, I very much wish that I could run Opus 4.5 locally. The best that I can do for my users is the Azure agreement that they will not train on their data. I also have that setting set on my claude.ai sub, but I trust them far less.
Disclaimer: No model is even close to Opus 4.5 for agentic tasks. In my own apps, I process a lot of text/complex context and I use Azure GPT 4.1 for limited llm tasks... but for my "chat with the data" UX, Opus 4.5 all day long. It has tested so superior.
The last I checked, it is exactly equivalent per token to direct OpenAI model inference.
The one thing I wish for is that Azure Opus 4.5 had json structured output. Last I checked that was in "beta" and only allowed via direct Anthropic API. However, after many thousands of Opus 4.5 Azure API calls with the correct system and user prompts, not even one API call has returned invalid json.
