I fully expect it within 30 years simply based on the rate of progression, overall (not in the field of AI specifically).
As an Australian I always have found the term black swan amusing as all our swans are black - I would actually be shocked to see a white swan.
More seriously why do you think 30 years?
Here it is in seven quick minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uIzS1uCOcE (Note: I think he's wrong in how he thinks it will unfold, but right in thinking the doubling every year of technology, in general, will contribute to bringing it about.)
I fully expect it within 30 years simply based on the rate of progression, overall (not in the field of AI specifically).